STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
95 NE APN 15 N APN 30 W TVC 35 SW OSH 30 NNW MLI 15 NNW UIN
30 NW ALN 45 ESE VIH 40 NNE SGF 40 SSW OJC 15 S HUT 35 SSE HLC
25 S HSI 15 NNW BUB 25 WSW MHE 20 NE BKX 25 NNW MSP 40 SE DLH
75 NW CMX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE 63S 30 NW GEG
30 SW EAT 10 SSW OLM 25 NW HQM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE YUM 30 NW GBN
50 NE PHX 25 E SOW 15 SSW GNT 45 WNW 4SL 30 SSE MTJ 20 WNW ASE
25 NNW 4FC 35 NNE LAR 20 ESE CPR 45 NNW RIW 25 NNW JAC 15 N MQM
BTM 45 N BZN 15 NE BIL 40 WNW 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 35 ESE GDV 15 S OLF
45 N GGW ...CONT... 150 NNW BUF 55 ENE OSC 30 SW OSC 10 N GRR
15 SE CGX 10 W CMI 35 E MVN 15 WSW CGI 15 S UNO 25 N LIT
45 NNE GLH 45 W CBM 15 E TCL 25 WNW AUO 40 WNW MCN 40 SSE AHN
30 SE AND 25 SW AVL 15 NE TYS 15 E LOZ 35 NNE JKL 25 NNW CRW
25 SE EKN 30 WSW DCA 30 ESE BWI 25 ENE ACY ...CONT... 15 WNW LRD
10 NNW COT 20 SSE SAT 55 SE AUS 35 W HOU 50 NW BPT 50 NE LFK
40 N TYR 20 SSW MLC 10 WSW TUL 20 WNW PNC 25 ENE GAG 30 ENE AMA
40 SE CVS 35 SW HOB 60 WNW MRF.
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SWRN RIDGE WILL EXPAND N ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND E INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WA/ORE
CONTINUES E TO THE UPR GRT LKS...AND TROUGH ATTM NOW THE OH VLY
DRIFTS E FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE E COAST.
AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY...WHILE TRAILING SRN PORTION BECOMES
STATIONARY AND MERGES WITH LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLNS.
...LWR MO VLY...
A PREFRONTAL MCS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OVER PARTS OF MN/ERN SD/IA. DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES IN BAND OF WLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY N
OF WRN U.S. RIDGE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER PARTS OF IA/NE NEB BY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED HEATING MAY ALLOW MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP SWWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO CNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY NRN KS
LATER IN THE DAY.
AMPLE /35 KT/ DEEP NWLY SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER REGION TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY NEAR EXPECTED
COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS IN WRN IA/ERN NEB.
WITH WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES AT MID
LEVELS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW
70S/...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.
THE IA/NEB STORMS SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS OR
TWO. LIGHT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND EXPECTED
ORIENTATION OF INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST A SE OR SSE MOTION OF THESE
SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT.
...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...
RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ERN
EDGE OF MORNING MCS OVER ERN SD/MN...DESPITE MORE LIMITED
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S. AMPLE SHEAR
WILL...HOWEVER...BE PRESENT FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO INDEED FORM. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NRN LWR MI LATER IN THE PERIOD.
...S TX...
CURRENT TPC FORECASTS TAKE T.S. CLAUDETTE TO AREA OFF THE BRO CST
MONDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
PROFILES FOR TORNADOES OVER FAR S TX. LOW LEVEL OVERLAND
TRAJECTORIES MAY...HOWEVER...LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT TIL A BIT
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
..CORFIDI.. 07/13/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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