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Jul-13-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   95 NE APN 15 N APN 30 W TVC 35 SW OSH 30 NNW MLI 15 NNW UIN
   30 NW ALN 45 ESE VIH 40 NNE SGF 40 SSW OJC 15 S HUT 35 SSE HLC
   25 S HSI 15 NNW BUB 25 WSW MHE 20 NE BKX 25 NNW MSP 40 SE DLH
   75 NW CMX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE 63S 30 NW GEG
   30 SW EAT 10 SSW OLM 25 NW HQM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE YUM 30 NW GBN
   50 NE PHX 25 E SOW 15 SSW GNT 45 WNW 4SL 30 SSE MTJ 20 WNW ASE
   25 NNW 4FC 35 NNE LAR 20 ESE CPR 45 NNW RIW 25 NNW JAC 15 N MQM
   BTM 45 N BZN 15 NE BIL 40 WNW 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 35 ESE GDV 15 S OLF
   45 N GGW ...CONT... 150 NNW BUF 55 ENE OSC 30 SW OSC 10 N GRR
   15 SE CGX 10 W CMI 35 E MVN 15 WSW CGI 15 S UNO 25 N LIT
   45 NNE GLH 45 W CBM 15 E TCL 25 WNW AUO 40 WNW MCN 40 SSE AHN
   30 SE AND 25 SW AVL 15 NE TYS 15 E LOZ 35 NNE JKL 25 NNW CRW
   25 SE EKN 30 WSW DCA 30 ESE BWI 25 ENE ACY ...CONT... 15 WNW LRD
   10 NNW COT 20 SSE SAT 55 SE AUS 35 W HOU 50 NW BPT 50 NE LFK
   40 N TYR 20 SSW MLC 10 WSW TUL 20 WNW PNC 25 ENE GAG 30 ENE AMA
   40 SE CVS 35 SW HOB 60 WNW MRF.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG SWRN RIDGE WILL EXPAND N ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND E INTO THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLNS ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WA/ORE
   CONTINUES E TO THE UPR GRT LKS...AND TROUGH ATTM NOW THE OH VLY
   DRIFTS E FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE E COAST. 
   
   AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SHORTWAVE WILL
   MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY...WHILE TRAILING SRN PORTION BECOMES
   STATIONARY AND MERGES WITH LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLNS.
   
   ...LWR MO VLY...
   A PREFRONTAL MCS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD OVER PARTS OF MN/ERN SD/IA.  DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES IN BAND OF WLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY N
   OF WRN U.S. RIDGE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER PARTS OF IA/NE NEB BY AFTERNOON. 
   CONTINUED HEATING MAY ALLOW MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO 
   DEVELOP SWWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO CNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY NRN KS
   LATER IN THE DAY.
   
   AMPLE /35 KT/ DEEP NWLY SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER REGION TO
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY NEAR EXPECTED
   COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS IN WRN IA/ERN NEB. 
   WITH WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES AT MID
   LEVELS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW
   70S/...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND
   PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.  
   
   THE IA/NEB STORMS SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS OR
   TWO.  LIGHT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND EXPECTED
   ORIENTATION OF INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST A SE OR SSE MOTION OF THESE
   SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT. 
   
   ...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...
   RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ERN
   EDGE OF MORNING MCS OVER ERN SD/MN...DESPITE MORE LIMITED
   INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S.  AMPLE SHEAR
   WILL...HOWEVER...BE PRESENT FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY
   DAMAGING WIND IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO INDEED FORM.  THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NRN LWR MI LATER IN THE PERIOD.     
   
   ...S TX...
   CURRENT TPC FORECASTS TAKE T.S. CLAUDETTE TO AREA OFF THE BRO CST
   MONDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
   PROFILES FOR TORNADOES OVER FAR S TX.  LOW LEVEL OVERLAND
   TRAJECTORIES MAY...HOWEVER...LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT TIL A BIT
   LATER IN THE PERIOD.  
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 07/13/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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