STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK AND TX...TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM30 NNE DRT 55 SSW SJT 35 NW ABI 55 S CDS 45 WNW
CDS 20 S GAG 35 E OKC 25 NW PRX 50 ENE ACT 25 NNE AUS 25 NE HDO 30
NNE DRT.
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE GGW 25 ESE GDV 40 WSW RAP 55 NNW
DGW 50 ENE WEY 30 SSW 27U 20 NNW S80 50 NNW FCA.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NE ECG 45 NW FLO 35 N AHN 10 NE HSV 15 SSW UOX 40 NW ESF
30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 20 E CRP 10 SW LRD ...CONT... 85 SW P07
25 SSE FST 50 SE MAF 35 N BGS 10 WNW LBB 20 WSW CVS 30 E RTN
20 SW LAA 55 SW HLC 25 SSE MHK 40 NE VIH 35 E SSU 35 NNE CHO
10 NE HGR 35 WSW ABE 15 SE NEL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ILM
25 ENE AGS 30 N LGC 20 SE BHM 40 ENE MEI 40 NW GPT 20 WSW BVE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW DVL 30 SW JMS
20 NNE PIR 30 SSE 9V9 45 SSW SPW 10 NE UIN 15 W IND 40 W MGW
25 NNE JHW 20 NNW UCA 10 S HYA ...CONT... 75 S MRF 30 ENE MRF
15 SSW MAF 45 N MAF 55 NE HOB 35 NNE ROW 25 NNW 4CR 45 ENE 4SL
25 NNW U17 45 SSE TWF 70 ENE 4LW 55 SE DLS 30 NNW 63S.
...SYNOPSIS...
TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...
BUT WITH INCREASED AMPLIFICATION IN BOTH JETS. IN THE NRN BRANCH
...STRONG SPEED MAX ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH NOW OFF THE BC CST
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E AND THEN NE ACROSS NRN WA/SRN BC AND CNTRL
ALBERTA.
IN THE SRN STREAM...IMPULSE NOW OFF THE SRN CA CST SHOULD CONTINUE
ESE ACROSS NRN MEX/SRN AZ AND NM DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS... BEFORE
MOVING E INTO TX ON FRIDAY. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... DISTURBANCE NOW
OVER THE MID MS VLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER PA BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NEW ENG CST BY LATER IN THE DAY.
FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY WEAK AT LOWER LEVELS. COMBINATION OF
LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN RECENT DAYS AND SUSTAINED
PRESENCE OF SRN STREAM JET SHOULD MAINTAIN/DEVELOP A SUBTLE FRONT
ORIENTED ROUGHLY W/E ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. VERY WARM/MOIST AIR WILL
PERSIST S OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ERN EXTENSION OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM THE LWR OH
VLY TO MID ATLANTIC CST.
...SRN PLNS...
COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PROVE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND S OF
WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF OK AND TX. COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT/INCREASED WLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
IMPULSE...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS INVOF FRONT
AND ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE AOA 3000 J/KG
AND DEEP SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL/LARGE SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. WIDE WARM SECTOR AND CONTINUED EWD MOTION
OF UPPER IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE
MCSS E TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
...MID/LWR MS VLY TO MID ATLANTIC CST...
A LARGE REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT S OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID/LWR MS VLY EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC CST. SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS AND
CLUSTERS OF STRONG DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS IN AREAS NOT RECENTLY
AFFECTED BY PREVIOUS ACTIVITY. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY YIELD HIGH
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...NRN RCKYS/HI PLNS...
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLUX AT MAX HEATING TIME WILL CREATE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF ID AND MT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 30-40 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR AND SELY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS
WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.
..CORFIDI.. 06/12/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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