STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FST
40 SSE CNM 30 NW ROW 10 WSW LVS 45 W COS 25 S LAR 50 SSE DGW CDR
40 SSW 9V9 15 NNE YKN 30 SSE SUX 25 ENE BIE 20 SW CNK 40 N P28
30 NNW FSI 30 WNW SEP 50 SSW BWD 50 W JCT FST.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSE ECG 10 ESE GSB 25 NNW SOP 25 WNW DAN 15 SE SHD 15 SE HGR
35 ESE CXY 10 ESE NEL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ELO 20 NE RST
30 N OTM 30 W IRK 15 ESE MKC 35 E CNU 20 SW FYV 10 WNW HOT
20 E GLH 35 NNE MEI 10 SSE MGM 20 S CSG 30 N MCN 35 NNW AND
30 NW TRI 15 SE UNI 20 ESE CMH 45 ESE FWA 35 SSE AZO 20 NNW LAN
OSC ...CONT... 35 N ART 15 NW MPV 15 ENE PWM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 45 SW SOW
75 NNE INW 20 N 4BL 50 S VEL 50 SW BPI MQM 10 NNW 3DU 30 NW CTB.
...PLAINS...
PERSISTENT CORE OF STRONGER NWLY FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS DAY2...PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR MAINTAINING/ORGANIZING ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS LATE AFTERNOON
INITIATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO INTO
NM WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL EXIST. MEAN FLOW WILL ALLOW
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS/MCS ACTIVITY TO MOVE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF
KS/OK/TX DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD EXIST. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE
LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT COMPLICATING FACTORS FROM DAY1
CONVECTION WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE DIFFICULT IN CONFINING A REGION
FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE ATTM.
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN BROAD BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT ENEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
DARK WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/OUTLOOK REGION. HOWEVER...LEE TROUGH/SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RETREATING PRECIPITATION/THICKER LAYERED
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 35-40KT WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED BUT SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS 12Z ETA MODEL SUGGESTS.
..DARROW.. 06/03/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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