STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNE CDR 55 NE PIR 25 E FAR 25 W INL 60 E ELO 20 WNW IWD
25 SSW FRM 20 SW HSI 35 NNE LAA DEN 50 N LAR 40 NNE CDR.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GLS 25 ENE ELD
25 ESE POF 10 SSW MIE 15 NNW UNI 30 NE TRI 50 S TYS 45 NNE CAE
10 SSE CRE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW IMT 10 SE MCW
20 WNW CNK 45 ESE LAA 55 E GUC 30 WSW SGU 55 WNW P38 25 NW ELY
40 S BPI 35 S 27U 35 W PDT 35 WSW EAT 45 NE 4OM 55 E LWT
20 ENE 4BQ 25 W BIS 60 N DVL.
...CNTRL/NRN PLAIN THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE NWRN THROUGH NCNTRL U.S. WILL CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
MIGRATE THROUGH THE LARGER TROUGH. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SWD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NEB
NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL RESIDE IN VICINITY OF
FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH PLUME OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
ADVECTED WWD TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO AS
ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES IN POST FRONTAL ZONE. STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY/NERN CO BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES
LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG/N OF THE FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS
IT DEVELOPS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
...OH VALLEY THROUGH SERN U.S...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY ESEWD AND WEAKEN FURTHER. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. THIS SUGGESTS FOCUS
FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS. OVERALL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL OR PULSE
TYPE STORMS. WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...THERMODYNAMICS
MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. WILL KEEP LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHERE ONGOING STORMS
AND THEIR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS AREA
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 05/17/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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