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May-17-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 NNE CDR 55 NE PIR 25 E FAR 25 W INL 60 E ELO 20 WNW IWD
   25 SSW FRM 20 SW HSI 35 NNE LAA DEN 50 N LAR 40 NNE CDR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GLS 25 ENE ELD
   25 ESE POF 10 SSW MIE 15 NNW UNI 30 NE TRI 50 S TYS 45 NNE CAE
   10 SSE CRE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW IMT 10 SE MCW
   20 WNW CNK 45 ESE LAA 55 E GUC 30 WSW SGU 55 WNW P38 25 NW ELY
   40 S BPI 35 S 27U 35 W PDT 35 WSW EAT 45 NE 4OM 55 E LWT
   20 ENE 4BQ 25 W BIS 60 N DVL.
   
   
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN PLAIN THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   UPPER PATTERN FROM THE NWRN THROUGH NCNTRL U.S. WILL CHANGE LITTLE
   THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE
   NRN ROCKIES THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
   MIGRATE THROUGH THE LARGER TROUGH. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
   TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL BUILD SWD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
   UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NEB
   NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.
   
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL RESIDE IN VICINITY OF
   FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH PLUME OF
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
   ADVECTED WWD TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO AS
   ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES IN POST FRONTAL ZONE. STORMS WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY/NERN CO BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH
   PLAINS DURING EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES
   LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG/N OF THE FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS
   IT DEVELOPS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   
   
   ...OH VALLEY THROUGH SERN U.S...
   
   UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
   SLOWLY ESEWD AND WEAKEN FURTHER. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. THIS SUGGESTS FOCUS
   FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION
   OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS. OVERALL SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL OR PULSE
   TYPE STORMS. WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...THERMODYNAMICS
   MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. WILL KEEP LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE AT
   THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHERE ONGOING STORMS
   AND THEIR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS AREA
   MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
    
   ..DIAL.. 05/17/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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