STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB/SW IA/ERN
KS/MO/AR/NE TX/NW LA AND NW MS. THIS AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A
LINE FROM 55 WSW TYR 45 ENE DAL 45 SW PGO 35 WNW FYV 20 SW OJC 30
SW FNB 20 W LNK 30 NE OLU 35 NNE OMA 40 ENE LWD 10 NNW STL 55 SSW
BLV 45 NE UNO 10 SSE UNO 45 WSW ARG 30 SSE JBR 25 N UOX 25 W GWO
35 S GGG 55 WSW TYR.
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE JAN 50 W JAN 35 N ESF 40 WNW POE
20 ESE CLL 40 S AUS 45 S JCT 10 N JCT 15 ESE BWD 15 SW FTW 40 NNE
DAL 30 ENE DUA 10 SSW MKO 35 S CNU 35 N CNU 20 SW TOP 25 NNE MHK 35
N CNK 20 NE EAR 15 NE BUB 30 SW YKN 40 SW SPW 45 W CID 35 ENE BRL
15 NW MTO 35 ENE EVV 20 ESE BWG 50 WNW CHA 10 NNW BHM 30 W TCL
50 NNE JAN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 40 E DVL
15 SSW HIB 30 WSW MQT 40 N HTL 20 E MTC 25 NNE ZZV 15 SSE CRW HSS
20 ESE CHA 25 ENE ANB 10 NNE CSG 30 N ABY 35 WNW AYS 10 SSE SSI
...CONT... 45 ENE PSX 30 NNE VCT 40 S SAT 40 NW COT 40 SSE DRT
...CONT... 45 NW DRT 45 WSW BWD 25 SW ADM 40 SW TUL 20 SSW EMP
40 ESE SLN 40 SSW HSI 30 ESE LBF 40 WNW LBF CDR 45 WNW BFF
25 N DEN 35 WSW PUB 45 SW ALS 30 SSW FMN 70 SE PGA 35 E SGU
45 WNW MLF 20 NW ELY 65 NW ELY 35 S WMC 40 ENE 4LW 15 SW BNO
10 SW BKE 30 SSE LWS 35 SW S06 20 NW 3TH 80 NW FCA.
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E
ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING NE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. SECONDARY
SPEED MAX ROUNDING BASE OF LOW...NOW APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY AROUND
25N/135W...SHOULD REACH E TX BY 12Z MONDAY. LEE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED
WITH CA SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO BE OVER SW NEB AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ...SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE TO THE SRN MN/SW WI AREA
EARLY MONDAY.
...ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS INTO LWR MO AND MID/LWR MS VLYS...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER PARTS OF
THE CNTRL U.S. ON SUNDAY AS EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED 80+
KT SPEED MAX MOVES E/NE ACROSS OK INTO AR/SRN MO.
LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE IN PROGRESS AT START
OF PERIOD ACROSS THE LWR MO/MID MS VLYS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY MID
LEVEL DRYING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/SE NEB/WRN MO AND
SW IA. THIS DRY SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
MOISTURE AXES FEEDING NNWWD INTO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
NEB...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED DESTABLIZATION.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUADRANT OF LOW AND
SWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS /DEEP SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
60S KTS/ AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG/ SHOULD
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES. STORMS IN MO SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY EWD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE MS
RIVER BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE ACTIVITY FARTHER N ACROSS NEB AND IA
SHOULD MOVE MORE NEWD...AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
WARM SECTOR THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED.
FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD
WITH TIME ALONG DRY LINE AND POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW FROM MORNING
CONVECTION SWD ACROSS SRN MO/ERN OK/AR AND NE TX. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY RICH GULF INFLOW /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S/...AND MAY INTENSIFY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF SECONDARY HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX. AS A RESULT...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT BOWS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
STRONG TORNADOES DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR RELATIVE
TO POINTS FARTHER N.
..CORFIDI.. 05/03/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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