Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Apr-25-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
(Select thumbnail to view full image)
   
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 SSW ILM SOP 30 E DAN RIC WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 15 S EAU
   25 SE MCW 35 NNE MHK 15 NE HLC 20 ESE CYS 30 N RIW 30 NNE IDA BNO
   EUG OLM 60 E BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S TLH 45 ESE AHN
   55 ENE BWG 25 WSW CMH 25 ESE PSB POU 25 SE AUG.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD WILL LIFT NEWD OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY
   EVENING. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS...TO THE S OF AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
   CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER VA WILL WEAKEN AS IT RAPIDLY
   LIFTS NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD
   THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SERN U.S. STATES. FARTHER W...LOW
   AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
   
   ...VA/NC...
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ATOP SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES
   APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
   COLD FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY
   ACROSS ERN PARTS OF VA/NC. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/LOW WET-BULB
   ZERO HEIGHTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
   EVENING.
   
   ...FL...
   STRONG TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST ACROSS
   THE CNTRL PENINSULA AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F AND MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
   ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...
   DIMINISHING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE A
   SLIGHT RISK ATTM. 
        
   ...DAKOTAS/MN...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
   AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ AND INCREASED FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.   
     
   ..MEAD.. 04/25/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home