STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
   PARTS OF SW NEB/WESTERN KS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
   EXTREME ERN CO TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MCK HLC 10 SSE P28
   OKC ADM FTW BWD ABI 60 NNW ABI CDS LBL 40 ENE LAA 50 NNW GLD IML 10
   S MCK.
   
   SURROUNDING THE MDT AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE
   RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TYR 15 SSW CLL COT DRT 40 ESE LBB 15 NE AMA
   EHA LAA AKO BFF 65 E CDR VTN EAR ICT MLC TYR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN DIK ABR FOD
   IRK 10 SSE JBR GLH 40 WSW HUM ...CONT... 50 NW DRT LBB TCC ALS
   10 W MTJ BCE 10 SSE OWY 70 NW FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE AUG 50 NW
   3B1.
   
   BLOCK IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CANADIAN/U.S.
   ROCKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL
   SLOW MOVING...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/CLOSED LOWS EMBEDDED
   WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
   THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LEAD SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE OFF THE
   NORTHERN MID/ATLANTIC COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
   REDEVELOPING EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NEW
   ENGLAND COAST.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGS TOWARD THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
   SOUTHERN PLATEAU IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
   
   WHILE MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE
   FLOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WHICH
   PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS/MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE
   CONVECTIVE THREAT.  MODELS DO ALL SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AT LEAST NUMEROUS
   MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LIKELY.  POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR MORE
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   TONGUE OF MID 50S/60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.  AS
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EAST OF HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH
   LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF
   THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY BY/SHORTLY AFTER 23/12Z IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHWEST-
   SOUTHEAST ORIENTED DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
   CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.  WHILE INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY
   WEAKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
   THIS BAND MID DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
   PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO POSSESS SUFFICIENT
   CAPE IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.
   
   FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...MID-LEVEL CAP WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG MOISTURE
   GRADIENT WEST OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  MEAN MIXED
   LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG IS PROGGED ALONG DRY LINE...WHICH
   BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
   ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
   
   AS EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER TROUGH JET CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD
   JUST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...DAYTIME HEATING TO NEAR
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK CAP.  MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH UPPER JET WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  VERY
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN STRONGEST STORMS...
   WITH A FEW TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.
   
   SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM...LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
   ...AND STABILIZATION DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALL SUGGEST
   MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS.
    
   ..KERR.. 04/22/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z