STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSW TBN 10 NNW SZL 45 NNE STJ 50 ESE OMA 40 SW FOD 20 W ALO
20 WSW DBQ 45 ESE DBQ 30 SSE MMO 20 E CMI 35 SSE MTO 40 WSW EVV
10 NE PAH 40 ESE POF 20 SW POF 20 SSW TBN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE ACY
25 NNW BWI 35 SSW HLG 25 ENE LUK 10 SSE SDF 15 W BWG 35 NW MSL GWO
40 NW POE 20 NNW TYR 30 NW HOT UMN 40 ENE EMP 25 WNW CNK
15 NNW EAR 55 W YKN 20 NW BKX 40 SSW STC 20 S EAU 35 W OSH MTC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF 35 E BGM
BID.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MIA
55 WNW MIA 10 S MLB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SAC 25 NW MHS
50 NE MFR 50 WNW BNO 15 SSW BOI 35 NE EKO 65 NE TPH 10 ENE BIH
20 ENE SAC.
...CENTRAL U.S...
STRONG...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW AT BEGINNING OF FORECAST
PERIOD...12Z WED...VICINITY SCENTRAL NEB PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO
CONTINUE E/ENEWD AND WITH SLOW WEAKENING. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX
OF 60-70KT AT 500MB WILL HAVE ROTATED AROUND LOW INTO LOWER MO
VALLEY BY WED MORNING. COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-
50KT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY 60F OR LESS. THIS WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WILL BE COMMON.
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL/IN
WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES FOR POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THAT SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES OUT OF PLAINS TUE NIGHT WILL
WEAKEN WED AM WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM WRN IA SWD INTO WRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY ALONG
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A FAVORABLE AREA VICINITY WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY WILL BE ENHANCED.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING INTO LWR OH
VALLEY AS FILLING AND WEAKENING OCCUR IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS.
..HALES.. 04/15/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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