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Apr-15-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 SSW TBN 10 NNW SZL 45 NNE STJ 50 ESE OMA 40 SW FOD 20 W ALO
   20 WSW DBQ 45 ESE DBQ 30 SSE MMO 20 E CMI 35 SSE MTO 40 WSW EVV
   10 NE PAH 40 ESE POF 20 SW POF 20 SSW TBN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE ACY
   25 NNW BWI 35 SSW HLG 25 ENE LUK 10 SSE SDF 15 W BWG 35 NW MSL GWO
   40 NW POE 20 NNW TYR 30 NW HOT UMN 40 ENE EMP 25 WNW CNK
   15 NNW EAR 55 W YKN 20 NW BKX 40 SSW STC 20 S EAU 35 W OSH MTC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF 35 E BGM
   BID.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MIA
   55 WNW MIA 10 S MLB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SAC 25 NW MHS
   50 NE MFR 50 WNW BNO 15 SSW BOI 35 NE EKO 65 NE TPH 10 ENE BIH
   20 ENE SAC.
   
   
   ...CENTRAL U.S...
   STRONG...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW AT BEGINNING OF FORECAST
   PERIOD...12Z WED...VICINITY SCENTRAL NEB PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO
   CONTINUE E/ENEWD AND WITH SLOW WEAKENING. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX
   OF 60-70KT AT 500MB WILL HAVE ROTATED AROUND LOW INTO LOWER MO
   VALLEY BY WED MORNING.  COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-
   50KT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
   ORGANIZED  CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MO AND MID MS
   VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  
   
   WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST WITH
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY 60F OR LESS.  THIS WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
   WILL BE COMMON.  
   
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL/IN
   WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES FOR POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   EXPECT THAT SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES OUT OF PLAINS TUE NIGHT WILL
   WEAKEN WED AM WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   FROM WRN IA SWD INTO WRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LIMITED
   INSTABILITY THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
   SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY ALONG
   WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   A FAVORABLE AREA VICINITY WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR/HELICITY WILL BE ENHANCED.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING INTO LWR OH
   VALLEY AS FILLING AND WEAKENING OCCUR IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
   AND ITS ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS.    
    
   ..HALES.. 04/15/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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