STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ISN
20 SSW BIL 25 ENE EVW 50 SSE SLC 50 NW MLF 65 NW P38 55 SE TPH
40 WNW NID 20 SSE VBG.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E OTH 25 SSE SLE
60 E BLI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE MQT
40 SSW IMT 25 SW CWA 30 NNW RST 25 SSW STC 30 NW INL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE LBB
25 WNW LTS 10 NNW SPS 15 WSW SEP 30 SSE JCT 35 ESE DRT 40 NW DRT
35 WSW P07 20 ENE LBB.
...SYNOPSIS...
COLD TROUGH MOVES TO W COAST BY 12Z MON AS LARGE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
U.S. SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD WITH SOME FLATTENING AS WEAK S/WV IMPULSES
RIDE ACROSS THE TOP THRU NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG 40-50
KT 850MB JET FROM W TX TO UPPER MS VALLEY PERSISTS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY NWD
INCREASING ACROSS PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MON.
...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
COLD TROUGH WITH 500MB TEMPS TO -30C MOVES INTO NRN/CENTRAL CA SUN
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MUCH OF CENTRAL VALLEY WILL BE ON CYCLONIC SIDE
OF STRONG POLAR JET BY AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
7C/KM...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. STRONGEST
STORMS OVER CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE...MOST LIKELY MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
...WRN GREAT LAKES...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA THRU MUCH OF PERIOD AS LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS PLAINS TRANSPORTS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THIS
UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER 00Z MON. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9C/KM
SPREADING EWD ACROSS ALL OF PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK S/WV TROUGH ON TOP OF CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE SUFFICIENT LIFT
SHOULD BECOME AVAILABLE PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z MON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MS VALLEY. INSTABILITY EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED...HOWEVER IN LATER FORECASTS...THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ELEVATED HAIL THREAT IF MORE INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP THAN NOW EXPECTED.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS SRN HI PLAINS AND MAY BE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CAP WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED AS SFC TEMPS W OF DRY LINE CLIMB TO ABOVE 90F FOR
POTENTIAL OF STORM INITIATION. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
SMALL GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.
..HALES.. 04/12/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
|