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Apr-12-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ISN
   20 SSW BIL 25 ENE EVW 50 SSE SLC 50 NW MLF 65 NW P38 55 SE TPH
   40 WNW NID 20 SSE VBG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E OTH 25 SSE SLE
   60 E BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE MQT
   40 SSW IMT 25 SW CWA 30 NNW RST 25 SSW STC 30 NW INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE LBB
   25 WNW LTS 10 NNW SPS 15 WSW SEP 30 SSE JCT 35 ESE DRT 40 NW DRT
   35 WSW P07 20 ENE LBB.
   
   
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   COLD TROUGH MOVES TO W COAST BY 12Z MON AS LARGE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
   U.S. SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD WITH SOME FLATTENING AS WEAK S/WV IMPULSES
   RIDE ACROSS THE TOP THRU NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG 40-50
   KT 850MB JET FROM W TX TO UPPER MS VALLEY PERSISTS THRU THE
   FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY NWD
   INCREASING ACROSS PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MON.
   ...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
   
   COLD TROUGH WITH 500MB TEMPS TO -30C MOVES INTO NRN/CENTRAL CA SUN
   AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  MUCH OF CENTRAL VALLEY WILL BE ON CYCLONIC SIDE
   OF STRONG POLAR JET BY AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
   LIMITED WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.  HOWEVER WITH
   AFTERNOON HEATING...AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
   7C/KM...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.  STRONGEST
   STORMS OVER CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCEMENT
   IS LIKELY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE...MOST LIKELY MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL. 
   
   ...WRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA THRU MUCH OF PERIOD AS LOW
   LEVEL JET ACROSS PLAINS TRANSPORTS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THIS
   UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER 00Z MON.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9C/KM
   SPREADING EWD ACROSS ALL OF PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY CONDITIONS
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD ASSOCIATED WITH
   WEAK S/WV TROUGH ON TOP OF CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE SUFFICIENT LIFT
   SHOULD BECOME AVAILABLE PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z MON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   TO DEVELOP ERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MS VALLEY.  INSTABILITY EXPECTED
   TO BE LIMITED...HOWEVER IN LATER FORECASTS...THIS  AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ELEVATED HAIL THREAT IF MORE INSTABILITY
   CAN DEVELOP THAN NOW EXPECTED.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS SRN HI PLAINS AND MAY BE FOCUS FOR
   ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  CAP WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
   WEAKENED AS SFC TEMPS W OF DRY LINE CLIMB TO ABOVE 90F FOR
   POTENTIAL OF STORM INITIATION.  SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
   SMALL GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.
    
   ..HALES.. 04/12/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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