STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW 4BK 50 N MFR
50 SE SLE 40 NNW DLS 50 E BLI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW GGW 65 E LWT
25 WNW BZN 20 NW IDA 20 NNE EKO 60 N BIH 15 NNE FAT 45 W PRB.
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SATURDAY WITH 12-HOUR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M SPREADING
INLAND OVER NRN CA AND ORE. MEANWHILE...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
DRIFT EWD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AS MEAN ERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES.
...NORTHWEST...
FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE ON THE CYCLONIC
SHEAR SIDE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING INLAND AND
NEWD FROM CNTRL/NRN CA INTO NV/ORE/ID AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POCKETS
OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING COMBINED WITH LESSENING STATIC
STABILITY AND MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUSTAIN ANY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
WITH THIS ANTICIPATED CONVECTION.
...TX..
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL TX...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODEST INSTABILITY. ETAKF AND GFS MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL TO NRN TX BY 21 UTC.
HOWEVER...WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OR A TSTM COULD DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS INITIATION IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS.
..CARBIN.. 04/11/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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