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Apr-11-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW 4BK 50 N MFR
   50 SE SLE 40 NNW DLS 50 E BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW GGW 65 E LWT
   25 WNW BZN 20 NW IDA 20 NNE EKO 60 N BIH 15 NNE FAT 45 W PRB.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   ON SATURDAY WITH 12-HOUR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M SPREADING
   INLAND OVER NRN CA AND ORE. MEANWHILE...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
   DRIFT EWD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AS MEAN ERN
   U.S. UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES.
   
   ...NORTHWEST...
   FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE ON THE CYCLONIC
   SHEAR SIDE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING INLAND AND
   NEWD FROM CNTRL/NRN CA INTO NV/ORE/ID AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POCKETS
   OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING COMBINED WITH LESSENING STATIC
   STABILITY AND MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUSTAIN ANY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
   WITH THIS ANTICIPATED CONVECTION.
   
   ...TX..
   AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL TX...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MODEST INSTABILITY. ETAKF AND GFS MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL TO NRN TX BY 21 UTC.
   HOWEVER...WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OR A TSTM COULD DEVELOP IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
   LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS INITIATION IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
   MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS.
    
   ..CARBIN.. 04/11/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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