Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Apr- 8-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
(Select thumbnail to view full image)
   
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 SW CTY 20 ESE SAV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 25 NW SEM
   45 SSE MSL 40 WNW CSV 15 WNW JKL 30 S HTS 15 SSE BKW 30 S ROA
   45 NNE RDU 25 ESE ECG.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH / CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE SERN CONUS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL / GA / THE FL
   PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
   FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLOWLY BUT REMAIN OVER ERN GA / SC THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.  COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ALONG THE
   NC / SC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...FL / FAR SERN GA...
   MOIST / MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
   RATES ARE ANTICIPATED.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD
   OF THIS FRONT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF FL SWWD INTO THE GULF...AND
   SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...MODERATELY-STRONG /
   ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
   INTO SMALL LINES / BOWS.
   
   FURTHER NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...MOIST / MINIMALLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY REMAIN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST OF ANTICIPATED WARM
   FRONTAL POSITION.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE
   STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND THUS
   MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS. 
   
   ...AL / WRN GA...
   WITH UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD POOL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THIS
   REGION DURING THE PERIOD...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
   LIKELY EXIST TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF
   THE PERIOD.  ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   BE STRONG ENOUGH EAST OF UPPER LOW CENTER TO ALLOW UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION / ROTATION -- WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD
   SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL.  IT APPEARS ATTM HOWEVER THAT OVERALL
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS DUE TO LIMITED
   INSTABILITY. 
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/08/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home