STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SW CTY 20 ESE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 25 NW SEM
45 SSE MSL 40 WNW CSV 15 WNW JKL 30 S HTS 15 SSE BKW 30 S ROA
45 NNE RDU 25 ESE ECG.
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH / CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SERN CONUS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL / GA / THE FL
PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLOWLY BUT REMAIN OVER ERN GA / SC THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ALONG THE
NC / SC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...FL / FAR SERN GA...
MOIST / MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF FL SWWD INTO THE GULF...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...MODERATELY-STRONG /
ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO SMALL LINES / BOWS.
FURTHER NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...MOIST / MINIMALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY REMAIN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST OF ANTICIPATED WARM
FRONTAL POSITION. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND THUS
MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
...AL / WRN GA...
WITH UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD POOL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THIS
REGION DURING THE PERIOD...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY EXIST TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH EAST OF UPPER LOW CENTER TO ALLOW UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION / ROTATION -- WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL. IT APPEARS ATTM HOWEVER THAT OVERALL
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
..GOSS.. 04/08/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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