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Mar- 1-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 SE DRT 40 SSE JCT 45 NNW SAT 15 SW AUS 40 SSE AUS 30 WNW VCT
   25 NE CRP 35 S CRP 50 S LRD.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 WNW CTY 15 S SSI ...CONT... 35 ENE ORL 10 WNW PIE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MLB 20 SSE SRQ
   ...CONT... 20 SSW PFN 25 NW SAV 15 N RDU 30 NNE NHK 15 WSW EWR
   25 SW BDL 30 NNW HYA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW DUG
   50 NNE TUS 35 SSW SOW 30 SE 4CR 30 ESE BGS 60 SW TYR 35 ENE PSX.
   
    ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
   THE SRN UNITED STATES DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
   NRN BRANCH MOVES EWD FROM MN/ONTARIO INTO THE NERN STATES.  A WEAK
   SURFACE LOW OVER WRN NC AT 02/12Z IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
   RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO ERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AND EXTEND
   SWWD ACROSS NRN FL.  THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE AS A STATIONARY FRONT
   WWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
   
   ...NRN FL...
   AN ACTIVITY BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
   TO LIE ACROSS NRN FL AT THE BEGINNING OF DY2.  VERY STRONG WLY FLOW
   WITH 500 MB WINDS OF 70 TO 80 KT TO BE OVER NRN FL DURING THE DAY
   ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW
   LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A STRONG WLY COMPONENT AND NOT BE VERY
   STRONG...STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO ONGOING STORMS SHOULD
   BE STRONG OWING TO THEIR RAPID EASTERLY MOVEMENT.  MODELS APPEAR TO
   BE FORECASTING SURFACE DEW POINTS S OF BOUNDARY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
   WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW GIVEN CURRENT VALUES.  THEREFORE...WE
   EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY
   SUNDAY.   GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...SOME SUPERCELL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING
   CONVECTION OVER NRN FL ON SUNDAY MORNING.  THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
   SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DRY
   AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME BOW ECHO ACTIVITY
   WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.  PRIND...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
   GREATEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN FORCING
   WILL BE THE GREATEST.
   
   ...SRN TX...
   VERY STRONG WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SRN TEXAS
   DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
   STATIONARY FRONT IS BRINGING UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO
   EXTREME SRN TEXAS CURRENTLY.   BOTH SURFACE AND ELEVATED
   MOISTURE OVER SRN TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO DY2 RESULTING
   IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.   LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION IS
   LIKELY TO INDUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON DY2 AND
   THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS...
   MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG COASTAL CAROLINAS AS FRONT
   APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  GIVEN THE STRONG MID
   LEVEL FLOW THERE IS A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ..JOHNS/HALES.. 03/01/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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