STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE DRT 40 SSE JCT 45 NNW SAT 15 SW AUS 40 SSE AUS 30 WNW VCT
25 NE CRP 35 S CRP 50 S LRD.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WNW CTY 15 S SSI ...CONT... 35 ENE ORL 10 WNW PIE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MLB 20 SSE SRQ
...CONT... 20 SSW PFN 25 NW SAV 15 N RDU 30 NNE NHK 15 WSW EWR
25 SW BDL 30 NNW HYA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW DUG
50 NNE TUS 35 SSW SOW 30 SE 4CR 30 ESE BGS 60 SW TYR 35 ENE PSX.
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SRN UNITED STATES DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
NRN BRANCH MOVES EWD FROM MN/ONTARIO INTO THE NERN STATES. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER WRN NC AT 02/12Z IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO ERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AND EXTEND
SWWD ACROSS NRN FL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE AS A STATIONARY FRONT
WWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
...NRN FL...
AN ACTIVITY BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO LIE ACROSS NRN FL AT THE BEGINNING OF DY2. VERY STRONG WLY FLOW
WITH 500 MB WINDS OF 70 TO 80 KT TO BE OVER NRN FL DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A STRONG WLY COMPONENT AND NOT BE VERY
STRONG...STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO ONGOING STORMS SHOULD
BE STRONG OWING TO THEIR RAPID EASTERLY MOVEMENT. MODELS APPEAR TO
BE FORECASTING SURFACE DEW POINTS S OF BOUNDARY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW GIVEN CURRENT VALUES. THEREFORE...WE
EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...SOME SUPERCELL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER NRN FL ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME BOW ECHO ACTIVITY
WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. PRIND...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
GREATEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN FORCING
WILL BE THE GREATEST.
...SRN TX...
VERY STRONG WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SRN TEXAS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS BRINGING UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO
EXTREME SRN TEXAS CURRENTLY. BOTH SURFACE AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE OVER SRN TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO DY2 RESULTING
IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION IS
LIKELY TO INDUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON DY2 AND
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL.
...ERN CAROLINAS...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG COASTAL CAROLINAS AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW THERE IS A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
..JOHNS/HALES.. 03/01/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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