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Feb-28-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PUB 20 SSE RTN
   20 SW LVS 35 SE PRC 10 NE EED 30 SSW DRA 65 E TPH 35 WSW PUC
   25 NNE GJT 25 W PUB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM 40 NW MOB
   45 NW BHM 25 NNE HSV 15 ENE RMG 15 W AND 10 E SPA 25 ESE DAN
   30 ESE BWI 10 NNE EWR 10 SSW GON.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG E/W JET IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES DURING THE FORECAST
   PERIOD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGGING
   SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.   A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST
   TO FORM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
   DEVELOP NEWD INTO ERN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING.  A WARM FRONT IS
   EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM NRN FL INTO SRN GA AND SRN SC 
   DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.   BY SUNDAY MORNING A SECONDARY SURFACE
   LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.   A SLY LOW
   LEVEL JET (25-35 KT AT 850 MB) IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND SHIFT EWD AND
   BECOME MORE SWLY WITH TIME.
   
   ....EXTREME SWRN AL...NRN FL...AND SRN GA....
   AS WARM FRONT MOVES NWD VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH SURFACE
   DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL ADVECT NWD INTO NRN FL.  THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT. ETA MODEL INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UVV DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
   THE SERN U.S. ON SATURDAY INCLUDING NRN FL.   CONSIDERABLE
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY IN
   THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER
   AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE S EDGE OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION. 
   HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK
   AND VEERING WITH TIME...THE RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
   ATTM.   IF IT APPEARS IN LATER MODEL DATA THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
   WILL BE STRONGER AND/OR MORE BACKED THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THE
   OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED. 
   
   ..JOHNS/WEISS.. 02/28/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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