STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PUB 20 SSE RTN
20 SW LVS 35 SE PRC 10 NE EED 30 SSW DRA 65 E TPH 35 WSW PUC
25 NNE GJT 25 W PUB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM 40 NW MOB
45 NW BHM 25 NNE HSV 15 ENE RMG 15 W AND 10 E SPA 25 ESE DAN
30 ESE BWI 10 NNE EWR 10 SSW GON.
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG E/W JET IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIGGING
SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST
TO FORM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
DEVELOP NEWD INTO ERN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM NRN FL INTO SRN GA AND SRN SC
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLY LOW
LEVEL JET (25-35 KT AT 850 MB) IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND SHIFT EWD AND
BECOME MORE SWLY WITH TIME.
....EXTREME SWRN AL...NRN FL...AND SRN GA....
AS WARM FRONT MOVES NWD VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL ADVECT NWD INTO NRN FL. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. ETA MODEL INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UVV DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE SERN U.S. ON SATURDAY INCLUDING NRN FL. CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER
AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE S EDGE OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK
AND VEERING WITH TIME...THE RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
ATTM. IF IT APPEARS IN LATER MODEL DATA THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE STRONGER AND/OR MORE BACKED THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THE
OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED.
..JOHNS/WEISS.. 02/28/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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