STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 45 ESE BLH
30 SW PRC 45 SSW GUP 20 S SAF 45 WSW TCC 55 S CVS 50 ESE GDP
55 WNW MRF.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL PERSIST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE THROUGH DAY 2.
A MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST...WILL WEAKEN AS
IT TRANSLATES SEWD THEN EWD ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN
TROUGH INTO AZ/NM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA AND THEN MOVE NEWD
INTO WRN TX BY THE END OF DAY 2.
...AZ/NM/FAR WRN TX...
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW. AS UVVS
INCREASE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. AREAL COVERAGE
WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
..MEAD/EDWARDS.. 02/07/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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