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Feb- 7-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 45 ESE BLH
   30 SW PRC 45 SSW GUP 20 S SAF 45 WSW TCC 55 S CVS 50 ESE GDP
   55 WNW MRF.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL PERSIST
   DOWNSTREAM FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE THROUGH DAY 2. 
   A MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST...WILL WEAKEN AS
   IT TRANSLATES SEWD THEN EWD ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN
   TROUGH INTO AZ/NM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...A WEAK
   SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA AND THEN MOVE NEWD
   INTO WRN TX BY THE END OF DAY 2.   
   
   ...AZ/NM/FAR WRN TX...
   DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
   INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHTLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW. AS UVVS
   INCREASE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
   AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. AREAL COVERAGE
   WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.  
   
   ..MEAD/EDWARDS.. 02/07/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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