SPC AC 230058
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003
   
   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
   DUA 20 NW TUL 40 SSW JLN 10 NNW HRO 10 W LIT ELD 50 NW POE 15 WNW
   LFK 50 N CLL 25 NE ACT 20 S DUA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 25 W ACT
   40 NNE FTW 30 SSW OKC 45 WNW OKC 20 WSW ICT 20 SSW OJC 35 WSW MTO 25
   WSW BMG 45 S BMG HOP 20 E TUP 40 S JAN 30 SSE HUM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR SWD TO
   NERN TX/NWRN LA...
   
   ...ERN OK/AR SWD ACROSS ERN TX/LA...
   VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS NRN OK AT 00Z WILL
   CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT REACHING AR/SRN MO BY 12Z TUESDAY.  EARLY
   EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN OK /NEAR TUL/
   WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD TO JUST EAST OF DAL AND THEN TO
   WEST OF AUS...WHILE A PSEUDO WARM FRONT EXTENDED NEWD FROM THE
   SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SRN IL.  THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
   TO SWEEP SEWD AND EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO SWRN LA/
   UPPER TX COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
   
   SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS SUSTAINING MOISTURE
   ADVECTION WITH MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR...
   WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER TX
   COAST/SWRN LA TO AROUND TXK.  00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP THAT WAS IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO ERODE
   WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD...
   RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-800 J/KG/.
   
   
   A 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ATOP A 40 KT SSWLY
   LLJ WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
   SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HOWEVER...
   VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP A
   SUSTAINED UPDRAFT.  
   
   AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS ERN TX/NWRN LA/SRN AR LATER THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM THREAT
   WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD...
   HOWEVER...DIMINISH AFTER 06-09Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND
   STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 12/23/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z