SPC AC 061257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST THU NOV 06 2003
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 30 WSW AYS
60 ESE MCN 15 NNE MCN 20 E ANB 15 WSW ANB 20 NNW TCL 35 NE CBM 15
WSW MSL 10 ESE CKV 10 NNW JKL 40 W MRB 30 SSE DOV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 35 NNE ROW
35 SSW CAO 10 NW EHA 35 E LBL END 20 N OKC 30 WNW ADM 20 SE BWD 20
SE JCT 15 W DRT.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL
JETLETS EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE NEWD. THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL
FROM THE LOWER OH VLY THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
BY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM BAJA CA
REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NERN STATES AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE TAIL END OF THE SAME FRONT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
...LOWER DELMARVA AND ERN NC...
AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
LEE TROUGH/BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
THIN THIS MORNING...ALLOWING POCKETS OF HEATING. MODIFYING 12Z GSO
SOUNDING SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE
CINH. AS TAIL END OF UPSTREAM VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL TSTMS COULD DEVELOP...OR INTENSIFY
WITHIN CURRENT BAND ACROSS SERN/EC VA/LOWER ERN MD SHORE AND ERN NC.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY DECREASE RAPIDLY BY EVENING
AND THE STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF THE COAST.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE. MUCAPES WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 750 J/KG AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER CELLS. TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD
INTO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
..RACY/JEWELL.. 11/06/2003
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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