SPC AC 051258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST WED NOV 05 2003
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PFN 20 WNW HSV
15 E BWG 20 E LUK 30 ESE ERI 20 WNW ELM 40 N MSV BAF 25 NW HYA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW P07 20 WSW FST
25 NNE INK 30 WSW LBB 20 SE BVO 20 SSE SGF 40 NE UNO 15 NW ARG HOT
15 E TYR 40 W LFK 30 SW CLL 30 NNE SAT 50 NW HDO 25 SSE DRT.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NATION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A COLD
FRONT SITUATED FROM SWRN ONTARIO-LOWER OH VLY-SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
ESEWD. NRN END OF THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NERN
STATES...BUT MOVE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
...SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE OZARKS...
EMBEDDED SPEED MAX EMBEDDED IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM WAS
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS ACROSS NRN MX. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
WCNTRL TX AND ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND/DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE OZARKS
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE
SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
WHILE SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...RELATIVELY WARM
LAYER NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ABOVE H5 MAY INHIBIT TALL UPDRAFTS AND
LIMIT HAIL PRODUCTION. FARTHER S...12Z KDRT SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT
INVERSION JUST ABOVE H85 AND A WARM LAYER ABOVE 550 MB...BOTH LIKELY
TO KEEP THREATS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...FL...
12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR
MASS. WHILE STRONG TSTMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN FL
TODAY...24-HOUR H5 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOUT 2C AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED. THUS...WOULD EXPECT MOST STORMS TO REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE WITH RESPECT TO HAIL/WIND/TORNADOES.
..RACY/JEWELL.. 11/05/2003
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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