SPC AC 051258
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 AM CST WED NOV 05 2003
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PFN 20 WNW HSV
   15 E BWG 20 E LUK 30 ESE ERI 20 WNW ELM 40 N MSV BAF 25 NW HYA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW P07 20 WSW FST
   25 NNE INK 30 WSW LBB 20 SE BVO 20 SSE SGF 40 NE UNO 15 NW ARG HOT
   15 E TYR 40 W LFK 30 SW CLL 30 NNE SAT 50 NW HDO 25 SSE DRT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
   THE END OF THE WEEK.  A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED
   ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NATION.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A COLD
   FRONT SITUATED FROM SWRN ONTARIO-LOWER OH VLY-SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
   ESEWD. NRN END OF THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NERN
   STATES...BUT MOVE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  
   
   ...SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE OZARKS...
   EMBEDDED SPEED MAX EMBEDDED IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM WAS
   EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS ACROSS NRN MX.  THIS WILL TRANSLATE
   NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
   WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
   WCNTRL TX AND ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND/DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE OZARKS
   THROUGH TONIGHT.  MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE
   SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. 
   WHILE SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...RELATIVELY WARM
   LAYER NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ABOVE H5 MAY INHIBIT TALL UPDRAFTS AND
   LIMIT HAIL PRODUCTION. FARTHER S...12Z KDRT SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT
   INVERSION JUST ABOVE H85 AND A WARM LAYER ABOVE 550 MB...BOTH LIKELY
   TO KEEP THREATS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MINIMAL THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...FL...
   12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR
   MASS.  WHILE STRONG TSTMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN FL
   TODAY...24-HOUR H5 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOUT 2C AND LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR HAS DECREASED.  THUS...WOULD EXPECT MOST STORMS TO REMAIN
   SUB-SEVERE WITH RESPECT TO HAIL/WIND/TORNADOES.
   
   ..RACY/JEWELL.. 11/05/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z