SPC AC 030542
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CST SUN NOV 02 2003
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 45 NE AYS
   40 SSW CHS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S DTW 25 ENE MMO
   30 W IRK 25 SSE MHK 35 S RSL 30 S LIC 45 SW RTN 30 NW SAF 40 S FMN
   40 SE 4HV 45 NW MLF 10 NNW ELY 40 S TWF 40 NE IDA 40 SSW COD 50 NNW
   CPR 35 ESE 81V 35 WSW ABR 30 E RHI 20 N OSC.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD THIS
   PERIOD AS DIGGING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
   ROTATES CYCLONICALLY AROUND SRN PORTIONS OF THE LARGE-SCALE WRN U.S.
   TROUGH.  IN RESPONSE...PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL BE
   DISPLACED EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM A WEAK
   LOW OVER SERN CO ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
   EWD AND JET STREAK / VORT MAX APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
   LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN KS...WHILE WRN HALF
   OF BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. 
   MEANWHILE...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF THETA-E
   ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON THE COOL
   SIDE OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND SHOULD PERSIST / REDEVELOP
   THROUGH THE PERIOD AS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION OVER THE REGION.  CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED /
   CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS IT
   APPEARS ATTM THAT WEAK FORCING AND CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT
   WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT.  LIMITED INSTABILITY FORECAST ON THE COOL
   SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL DESPITE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES / MARGINAL
   DESTABILIZATION.  THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN.  STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...AND
   SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  
   
   
   ...FL PENINSULA / SERN GA...
   UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE
   MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AOB 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS
   FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WEAK
   LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LIMITED UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/03/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z