SPC AC 120425
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 30 NNW HLN
   45 SW 3DU PUW 30 NNW YKM 10 WNW AST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW MAI VLD 30
   SE JAX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS SOW 45 SSE
   GNT 4CR 45 SSE CVS 35 ENE BGS 55 WNW LFK GLS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS...LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TAKING SHAPE
   ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD.  STRONG AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/WI/IL
   -- IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN OVER
   SERN ONT/WRN QUE.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS
   GREAT LAKES...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. 
   SRN PORTION OF SAME FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND DECELERATE OVER NWRN
   GULF AMIDST NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON BOTH SIDES. SFC-BASED
   INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE SCANT TO NULL THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
   
   --- GEN TSTM AREAS ---
   CYCLONIC SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT WILL EXTEND NEWD FROM
   PERSISTENT NW MEX CUT-OFF LOW...COMBINING WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
   LOW LEVELS TO MARGINALLY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS FROM RIO GRANDE VALLEY
   TO SERN AZ...SUPPORTING GEN TSTM POTENTIAL.  MEANWHILE...WEAK LIFT
   AND WEAK CINH INVOF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL/CONFLUENCE ZONE MAY SUPPORT
   THUNDER OVER PORTIONS FL...HOWEVER CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE TOO WEAK
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  LOW-MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
   PACIFIC NW TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG AND
   EPISODIC POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED TSTMS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z