SPC AC 020554
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2003
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S YUM 15 NNE LAS
   55 SW U31 45 NW SVE 45 N LMT 45 WNW BNO 30 NNW PIH 55 NNW CAG 50 SSE
   AKO 40 ENE HLC 30 WNW OMA 20 S RWF 25 SSW EAU 35 W RFD 20 E UMN 45 N
   ADM 10 NW PVW 40 W ROW 30 S DMN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CTY 25 NNW
   DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S AUG 30 WSW EEN
   35 SSW BGM 15 W FKL ARB 20 ESE HTL 85 ESE ANJ.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN U.S.. THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT ENEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
   WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS SWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY
   NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH OVER CA/NV UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
   DEVELOP SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO AZ.
   
   
   ...SWRN U.S....
   
   UPPER JET OFF THE CA COAST AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO
   DROP SSEWD WITH DIVERGENT EXIT REGION APPROACHING THE SWRN U.S. BY
   THURSDAY EVENING.A DEEP DRY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER SRN AZ.
   HOWEVER...PERSISTENT SLY FLOW AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER
   TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND
   DESTABILIZATION THURSDAY. MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG
   WITH THE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED N OF THE RIM WHERE
   CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND AS LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
   MORE NUMEROUS IN UPSLOPE REGIME ALONG AND N OF THE RIM...ESPECIALLY
   DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. MODERATE MID
   LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
   CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. STEEP LAPSE RATES
   AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT
   APPEARS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...
   
   STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON NOSE OF
   STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS EWD THURSDAY NIGHT.
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD OVER THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
   RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WILL
   DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
   VALLEY. IT APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE
   INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SMALL HAIL AT BEST.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/02/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z