SPC AC 091625
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2003
   
   VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBB
   CVS CAO LIC BFF CDR ANW BUB HSI RSL GAG CDS LBB.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PGA
   U17 4BL FMN GNT 50 NNW SAD 60 NE PHX FLG PGA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE YUM 30 ESE IGM
   25 N SGU 15 SSE TPH 45 E MHS 30 WNW RDM 40 WSW PDT 25 SSE SUN 15 WSW
   JAC 20 SE SHR 30 SW DIK 55 N MOT ...CONT... 20 N ELO 35 NNW BVO 30
   NW FSI 20 SE SJT 50 ENE COT 55 SE AUS 30 S POE 20 SSW ESF 40 WSW MLU
   45 ENE SHV 25 SW TXK 40 E FSM 60 SW MEM 45 W CBM 35 ENE MEI 60 NNE
   MOB 30 WSW PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 35 N PBI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CRE 45 W ILM
   15 NE GSB 55 W ECG 15 ESE ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE YNG 20 ENE MGW
   20 E PSK 40 SSE JKL 45 S SDF 40 SSW BMG 15 SSW MMO 15 SSW MSN 10 SSE
   CWA 40 WNW IMT 30 S MQT 30 SSE ESC 25 ENE MKE SBN 20 NNW CLE 25 ESE
   YNG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
   DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   ROTATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  DEEPENING
   SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...WITH
   TRAILING LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. 
   RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT ALONG/EAST OF
   SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND AFTERNOON
   MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG.  STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE
   SLOWLY WEAKENED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND UVVS...LEADING TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM EASTERN CO/WESTERN NEB/WESTERN KS INTO EASTERN NM/WEST
   TX.  INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS...STRONG VEERING OF WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT...AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
   FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS /3KM
   HELICITY VALUES OF 150-300 M2/S2 AND 6KM SHEAR OF 35-45 KNOTS/. 
   LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  RELATIVELY
   HIGH LCL HEIGHTS MAY LIMIT SIG TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
   THROUGH THE EVENING.  
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
   NV/SOUTHERN CA.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
   TODAY...PROVIDING UPPER FORCING AND LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
   UT/AZ/SOUTHWEST CO/WESTERN NM. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS MODERATELY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOWING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF ORGANIZED OR
   EVEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
   NORTHERN AZ.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF CO/NM
   THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
   THREATS.
   
   ..HART.. 09/09/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z