SPC AC 021216
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2003
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW CZZ 45 NNE SAN
   15 NNE SMX 20 NE PRB 10 SSW BFL 45 WNW NID 45 NNE MER 30 WNW TVL 40
   ENE U31 55 WNW TWF 30 SW SUN 20 E IDA 25 W WRL 35 W CDR 40 ENE GLD
   45 N EHA 30 WNW TCC 25 SE FHU ...CONT... 55 SSE DRT 50 NNW SAT 20 NE
   TYR 25 SSE FYV 10 SE SLO 30 N DAY 15 ENE PIT 30 ENE ISP ...CONT...
   80 NE APN 15 ENE MKG 15 WSW ALO 20 SSE RWF 30 W RRT
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS
   PERIOD AS VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN DIVES
   SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO. REMNANT TROPICAL
   CIRCULATION OVER SERN OK/WRN AR WILL CONCURRENTLY DE-AMPLIFY AS IT
   MIGRATES NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. TO THE W...RESULTANT HEIGHT
   RISES UPSTREAM FROM DIGGING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY
   WEAKEN CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NRN NV AS IT MOVES EWD INTO
   UT.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER CNTRL ONTARIO
   LATER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN
   PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...WEAK BUT YET EXISTENT
   BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE DELMARVA WWD ALONG THE
   OH RIVER TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NEWD INTO MID MS
   VALLEY.
   
   ...DELMARVA WWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION /EVIDENT IN EARLY MORNING IR
   SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC DATA/ WILL ONCE AGAIN SLOW THE
   DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS INVOF SURFACE FRONT.
   MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING
   SHOULD...HOWEVER...CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
   AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION AS WELL AS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/CNTRL OH
   VALLEY WILL FOCUS THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION LATER TODAY ALONG THE
   FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
   WEAK...AN AXIS OF 25-35KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST FROM THE
   MIDDLE OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE DELMARVA. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...IT
   APPEARS THAT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. POOR LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
   INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RATHER
   LOCALIZED AND A SLIGHT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.
   
   ...WRN GREAT LAKES...
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   CONTENT /I.E. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. FORCED
   ASCENT ALONG FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A
   FEW STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE MN
   ARROWHEAD EWD INTO THE UP OF MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
   SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...OWING TO THE WEAK
   INSTABILITY. ETA FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE WIND
   SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT
   THAT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
   RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...UT INTO SWRN WY...
   02/00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   /8-8.5 C/KM/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
   OVER NRN/CNTRL NV. THESE LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NRN/CNTRL UT INTO SWRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRY AND
   DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS
   THAT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
   CELLS.
   
   ...SERN CA/AZ...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING NWWD
   THROUGH BAJA/GULF OF CA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIM AND
   ADJACENT LOWER DESERTS BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HERE TOO...
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 09/02/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z