SPC AC 170600
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2003
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
   CRE 15 NNW AHN 15 ESE HSV 15 SSE BNA 35 WNW LOZ 20 SE 5I3 15 SE LYH
   15 NNW ORF
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 35 ESE RAL 25 NNE
   RAL 25 SSW NID 45 E FAT 25 NNW BIH 65 SSW ELY 45 W PUC 45 ESE EVW 25
   SE BPI 30 WNW WEY 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 45 NW JMS 45 N
   VTN 10 N HLC 40 W AMA INK 15 SSE P07
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 30 NW EPM
   ...CONT... 35 SSE DRT 40 WNW TPL 25 N FTW 20 SE PGO 30 ESE SGF 30 S
   P35 35 E FOD 55 NW DBQ 30 SE RFD 45 NE LAF 30 ESE CAK 40 NW ELM MSS
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY
   THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SRN VA...
   
   ...SERN U.S....
   
   A VORT MAX NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SEWD AND OFFSHORE BY
   MID DAY. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL DROP SEWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
   UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...
   THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN
   STATES...AND AS THIS OCCURS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE SWD AND
   EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH KY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   
   THERMAL COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID
   ATLANTIC. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY IN
   NWLY FLOW REGIME ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE SERN
   U.S. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO LINE SEGMENTS 
   AND SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME. DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
   THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.
   
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN MT IS FORECAST TO TURN SEWD INTO WY
   AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND ANOTHER UPPER
   VORT MAX NOW LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH CO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
   NWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE
   SURFACE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CNTRL MT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
   SLOWLY EWD AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY EVENING.
   
   SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST E OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
   MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS MAINLY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THERMAL COOLING
   ASSOCIATED WITH NWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ZONE OF MID LEVEL
   ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE NWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE
   BOUNDARY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING AFTERNOON.
   UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT STORMS TRAINING FROM S TO
   N. THOUGH THE FLOW ORIENTATION RELATIVE TO THE BOUNDARY IS NOT IDEAL
   FOR WIDESPREAD PROGRESSIVE DAMAGING WIND...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITHIN THE STRONGER
   CORES AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NWD. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 08/17/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z