STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM SGU VEL
   10 NE GCC 50 NNW MOT ...CONT... 15 E RRT 40 E PIR 35 ESE SNY
   30 NNW GLD 15 ENE RSL 25 ESE MKC 20 SE SPI 15 ENE TOL.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ERN PACIFIC UPPER-TROUGH WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A BELT OF STRONG
   WESTERLIES RIDES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  IN ADDITION..AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
   MOVE ACROSS SRN FL INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE ANOTHER
   EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO SRN TX...AN INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER
   W TX AND E NM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWRD INTO NM AND AZ...A STATIONARY
   FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT AND NWRN ND.
   
   ...SRN FL...
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS SRN FL AND EXTENDING
   OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THIS MORNING.  MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE FAR WRN AND SRN COAST OF FL. THE
   INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER INCREASE AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES THIS
   AFTERNOON HELPING THE CONVECTION TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH
   00Z...A BAND OF STRONGER ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING INLAND AND
   SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES BY
   MIDDAY. 
   
   ...ERN AZ/WRN NM...
   LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
   AZ EXTENDING INTO SRN UT.  SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
   60S F ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL AZ WHICH WITH SFC HEATING WILL CREATE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
   FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN AZ AND WRN NM AS INSATBILITY AND LIFT
   INCREASE AHEAD OF WESTWARD MOVING LARGE SCALE INVERTED TROUGH.
   STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS A BAND OF STRONGER NELY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW MOVES ACROSS AZ AND RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30KT AS
   INDICATED BY THE 12Z ETA MODEL RUN. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH THE INVERTED V PROFILES OVER THE LOWER
   DESERTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. 
   REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO
   SLIGHT RISK ON THE 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.
    
   ..AFWA.. 08/14/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z