SPC AC 052001
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2003
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
   FCA 40 SW BZN 40 NW PIH 40 NNE OWY 60 NNE 4LW 45 WNW MHS 35 NE 4BK
   35 NNE PDX 30 SSW YKM 35 WSW PDT LWS 35 NNE 63S
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
   CRE 45 SE AGS 35 SSE ATL 25 NE JAN 15 SE PBF 25 NW FSM 15 WNW EMP 20
   SE BIE 15 SW P35 25 W CGI 20 SSE CKV 15 SE CSV 45 SSE TYS 20 SE HSS
   40 NE TRI 35 ESE EKN 15 E BWI 10 W WAL
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HUM 50 WSW MLU
   25 NNW PRX 55 ESE LBB 25 SSW INK 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 30
   SE SAD 20 ESE SOW 15 WNW GNT 30 S 4SL 50 SW ALS 35 N DRO 15 SE EGE
   50 SW LAR 15 S DGW 15 ESE CDR MHN 45 SE LBF 55 SW HLC 25 NE ICT 15
   ENE CNK 15 E OLU 35 N SUX 20 WSW FOD 20 ENE DSM 40 ENE IRK 25 SSW
   STL 25 NE PAH 25 SSE BWG 55 WSW LOZ 35 WNW JKL 10 ENE DAY 15 W LAN
   15 SE APN
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE HVR 25 ENE LVM
   20 WNW COD 30 SSW LND 35 SSW VEL 15 NW PUC 35 SSE SLC 35 E MLD 15 N
   PIH 40 SW TWF 30 W OWY 55 ENE 4LW 30 SSE LMT 35 SSE MHS 50 W RBL 20
   NNW ACV ...CONT... 15 NW AST 20 SSW SEA 50 N SEA 20 NE BLI
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E MQT 40 NNE MTW
   50 SSE DLH 40 SE BJI 75 N GFK
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS AND THE OZARKS INTO
   THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE WEST...A
   RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND
   ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE TWO TROUGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE
   THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED...WITH THE
   MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NERN CONUS SSWWD ALONG THE
   APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN WNWWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS.
   
   ...ERN KS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN MO
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS / VA WHERE GENERALLY 1000 TO
   2000 J/KG 100 MB MEAN-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED.  THIS REGION LIES
   BENEATH ENHANCED ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF ERN U.S.
   TROUGH...RESULTING IN A CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION SUPPORTIVE OF
   SCATTERED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS / HAIL.  ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW CLUSTERS
   OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
   REGION NWWD BENEATH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK.  
   
   ...PAC NW...
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL /AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG
   100 MB MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...35 TO 40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG ERN
   EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A FEW SEVERE / ROTATING STORMS TO
   DEVELOP.  UPDRAFTS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY STEEP LOW-TO MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...WHICH COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS WOULD
   SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/05/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z