DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
   PLN 25 S FNT 15 NE LEX 15 NNW LIT 30 ESE FSI 35 SW CAO 40 W TAD 15
   SSE 4FC 20 SW LAR 25 NE LAR 20 NW AKO 45 NNE LAA 40 ESE LAA 30 SSE
   DDC 40 SSE RSL 25 ENE CNK 35 ENE FNB 30 ESE CID 35 E DBQ 40 SSE LSE
   15 ENE MKT 35 SW STC BRD 30 NE DLH CMX 35 ENE PLN
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ 25 WSW TRM
   25 N RAL 10 SSW PMD 40 ENE SMX PRB 40 W MER 25 SSW SAC 45 W RBL 25
   WSW MHS 15 N LMT 60 S BNO 70 NW OWY 35 NE OWY 15 SE TWF 35 ENE ENV
   30 SW EVW 30 WSW RKS 45 N RWL 45 S SHR 35 NNW 81V 40 SSE REJ 40 SSW
   PIR 45 SSW MHE 30 ESE OFK 50 SW FOD 30 NW MCW 35 SW AXN 55 SW DVL 65
   NE MOT
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PBG MPV 15 SE
   LEB 10 ENE ORH 35 SSW GON
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 40 W LFK 35
   WSW MLU 40 ENE ELD 35 NNE TXK 45 NNE MWL 15 NW LBB 50 SW ROW ELP
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE ACROSS THE
   SRN PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL DRIFT SOUTH
   ACROSS NRN WI THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD BAND OF MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL
   FLOW SPREADING SOUTH FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
   SRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF DIFFLUENT
   MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...AND
   BACK INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE. ELSEWHERE...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS CA AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST AND GREAT BASIN. DEEP SLY FLOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TO THE
   NORTHEAST WILL WILL MAINTAIN FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
   ATLANTIC AND GULF AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS NEWD FROM THE MID
   ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT NEAR UPPER LOW CIRCULATION AND WITHIN LEFT FRONT
   QUADRANT OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX COUPLED WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL AGAIN PROMOTE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM MN/WI ACROSS MI. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY
   TO FORM IN ARCS OR BANDS ALONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXES EITHER
   ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OR FRONTAL ZONES. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG
   WINDS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SEWD INTO POTENTIALLY
   STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS IL/IND/WRN OH.
   
   ...KS/MO/OK...
   STRONG MCS IS POSSIBLE ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION OVER
   KS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE STRONG CAP TO THE WEST OF
   THIS SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND FORCING INVOF DEVELOPING
   THERMAL LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN KS INTO OK/TX PNHDLS AND NWRN OK THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT.
   
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER FROM ERN KS INTO MO DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY DECAYING MCS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   WITHIN DIFFLUENT NOSE OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL LIKELY AID
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
   SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS...A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO A SMALL BACKBUILDING
   SEVERE MCS OVER THE OZARKS BY LATE EVENING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
   MAINTAINS INSTABILITY AND LIFT ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
   
   ...FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...
   POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN CO DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AND AID STORM INITIATION ON THE FRONT RANGE. MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM ATOP RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
   SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING SSEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A DAMAGING
   WIND/LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLD TORNADO THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE
   EVENING.
   
   ...CALIFORNIA...
   CONTINUING FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO CNTRL CA AND THE
   SRN/CNTRL SIERRA WILL AGAIN FUEL STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   THESE AREAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMAL SHEAR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
   POOR STORM ORGANIZATION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH SURFACE T/TD
   DEPRESSIONS COULD SUPPORT A FEW HAIL AND/OR WIND EVENTS.
   
   ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 08/01/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z