STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 WSW GLD 35 NNE COS 10 WSW DEN 15 W FCL 35 NNE LAR 20 S DGW
45 E DGW 35 WSW CDR 35 ENE AIA 25 WNW LBF 20 SW MCK 15 ENE GLD
45 WSW GLD.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 SE LUK 25 SE LUK 15 ENE LUK 40 SE DAY PIT 20 SW AVP 20 NNW ABE
ABE 35 NNW ILG 25 SW MGW 25 WNW HTS 55 SE LUK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 25 WNW EAU
40 WNW DBQ 35 ESE BRL 20 S DEC 25 SE IND 25 S MFD 45 WNW IPT
20 NW MSV 20 NW POU BDR ...CONT... 15 SSW IPL 20 ESE FAT
40 ESE RBL 30 NE MFR 40 SW RDM 50 ENE RDM 35 SSW BKE 40 WNW BOI
55 SSE EKO 20 ESE ELY 40 NNW MLF 35 ENE U24 55 SE SLC 55 N GGW.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW AUS
20 SSE TPL 45 SE ACT 30 ENE LIT 15 E ARG 35 NW POF 10 S VIH
10 SSW SZL 15 N EMP 20 WNW TCC 65 W CVS 20 ENE ROW 20 NE MAF
60 WNW AUS.
...SERN WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO/FAR SRN NEB/NRN KS...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM NRN KS EXTENDING NW
ACROSS NE CO AND WRN NEB WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WRN NEB AND NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR FARTHER S ACROSS NERN CO LATER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS WY. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT 30 KT AT 500 MB. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ROTATING
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS CONVECTION INCREASES
THIS EVENING...IT SHOULD RIDE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE
INVERTED V PROFILES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMOUNT OF SHEAR
SUGGESTS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. FARTHER E ACROSS SERN NEB AND NERN KS...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INITIATE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS LATER TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORT.
...OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ORIENTED
FROM SRN OH EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL PA. THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD
OF THE LINE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS IND AND OH.
HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS PA WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
35 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN
THE LINE EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PA. AN ISOLATED WIND GUST WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE LINE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SWD INTO
AN AXIS OF MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED ACROSS ERN KY AND WV.
...SRN AZ...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF AZ
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG. CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN NCNTRL AZ
AND HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF AZ
WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION
MOVES SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SWRN AZ LATER THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 07/27/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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