STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ERN IA
   AND NRN PARTS OF IL AND IND. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF
   A LINE FROM 20 NNE HUF 25 NE SPI 30 SSW BRL 15 NNE OTM 50 NNE DSM
   MCW 45 SSW LSE 15 NNW CGX 30 NE FWA 35 SE MIE 20 NNE HUF.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 W FNB 20 SW HSI 15 SW BUB 35 WNW YKN 20 SSE JMS 30 NW FAR
   35 WSW BJI 20 N MTW 15 SE MTC 10 NNW BFD 30 NW AOO 40 ENE PKB
   35 N LEX 20 E MVN JBR 45 NE LIT 20 E FSM 35 W FNB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML
   30 SSE RUT ISP ...CONT... 50 E PSX 20 S LFK 30 N TYR 45 NNE OKC
   35 WNW GAG 25 W TCC 45 SSE 4CR 10 S ELP ...CONT... 75 S GBN
   40 SSW PRC 55 S SGU 20 ENE EDW 40 WNW BFL 25 NE SJC 35 SSW RBL
   25 NNE MHS 55 N 4LW 25 SSW BKE 30 WNW MSO 60 NNE FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CHA
   15 NNW TYS 15 WNW LYH 25 NE CHO 35 S MRB 40 SSW AOO 45 SE PKB HTS
   35 E LEX 25 W BWG 40 SSE PAH 20 SSW DYR 45 SSW MEM 30 NNE CBM
   20 NW GAD 30 NNE CHA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE GGW 35 S GDV
   25 WNW Y22 BIS 35 NNE JMS 20 WSW TVF 10 N RRT.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION OVER NRN/CNTRL MANITOBA BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE SEWD IN
   RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH
   COLUMBIA COAST. AN ASSOCIATED AND MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SEWD TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
   WILL CONCURRENTLY TRACK SEWD AND SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER CNTRL WI BY
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
   STRETCHING SWWD THROUGH NRN IA INTO CNTRL NEB. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT WARM FRONT MAY ALSO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
   A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN
   PROGRESS INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN.
   ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MORNING
   HOURS...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/WINDS SHOULD
   PERSIST WITH STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE COMPLEX. 
   
   STRENGTHENING WLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY
   SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ADVECT MOIST...BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
   /CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS/ EWD INTO THE SRN
   GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG FROM
   ERN NEB/WRN IA EWD INTO NRN IL/IND. 
   
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
   STRENGTHEN OVER SRN MN/NRN IA AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WIND
   PROFILES ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   OWING TO THE VEERED CHARACTER OF THE LLJ. NONETHELESS...ENOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND/OR
   BOWING STRUCTURES. THE STRENGTHENING MCS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP/MOVE
   RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING HOURS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID-
   LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
   STRENGTH OF THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND/HAIL
   EVENTS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS/BOWS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
   
   THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND AS FAR E AS OH INTO
   WRN NY OVERNIGHT AS MCS PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
   INCREASING STABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT E OF THIS
   AREA.
   
   ADDITIONAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE ONGOING MCS AND COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF IA. HERE TOO...
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INVOF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   STRONG HEATING...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM/ ALL SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
   STRONG TSTMS ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF NEB AND KS.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
   MASS OVER ERN CO. RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
   OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ...MO INTO NRN AR...
   00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY BUILD SWD
   INTO INSTABILITY AXIS TONIGHT WHERE MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG
   SHOULD EXIST. MODESTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /30-35KTS THROUGH
   THE LOWEST 6KM/ AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. 
    
   ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 07/20/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z