STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   65 NW MOT 25 NW BIS 30 W ABR 25 W BKX 10 SSW OTG 30 NNE MCW
   25 SSE LSE 25 SW OSC 55 E MBS 15 NW MTC 45 SE CGX 20 SSW DNV
   10 NW SLO 45 W STL 20 WNW IRK 15 NNE OMA 45 ENE AIA 65 NE DGW
   35 W 4BQ 55 WNW MLS 60 NNW GGW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW LAX 35 WSW SAC
   35 S RBL 50 ESE RBL 25 SSE LOL 35 SSE WMC 90 SE BNO 65 E BNO
   30 NE CTB ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 10 SSE FAR 40 WSW STC 35 NNW RST
   35 NW OSH OSC ...CONT... 15 N CAR 45 E 3B1 35 W AUG 10 WNW LCI
   15 NNE PSF 20 WSW POU 25 WNW ABE 35 E AOO MGW UNI 25 NNE LEX
   35 WSW SDF 45 ENE PAH DYR 35 SSW MKL 30 SW MSL 35 N GAD 10 WSW TYS
   30 E TRI 35 N GSO 30 WNW ORF 35 NE ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PRX 30 W MKO
   25 SE TOP 20 E BIE 30 N EAR 20 SW BBW 35 NE IML 30 SSE AKO
   25 SSE PUB 40 ENE LVS 30 SW TCC 55 W LBB 35 SW ABI 15 S TPL
   65 SSW TYR 15 S PRX.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO MI...
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SSEWD FROM ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT
   LAKES ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES TOPPING THE RIDGE AND TRACKING SEWD
   ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS
   AREA OF CONCERN.  WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NRN MI SWWD TO
   SRN WI/NRN IA THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS ALONG/S OF MOST OF THIS
   BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW...40-50 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MI THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
   THE AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WSWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN WI/NRN
   IL...WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP WWD INTO IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THOUGH
   CONVECTION WILL BE FIGHTING A STRONG CAP. 
   
   SSEWD MOVING STORMS ACROSS IL/MI AND POTENTIALLY IA SHOULD WEAKEN
   LATER THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES...THOUGH WEAK LOW-
   LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   SUB-SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.   
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING FROM ERN MT ESEWD THROUGH SWRN/SRN ND
   INTO NRN/ERN SD...WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED WNWWD
   FROM NWRN IA TO WRN SD AND ERN MT.  SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE
   TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES...
   WITH MLCAPES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2500 J/KG OVER MT/SWRN ND TO
   AROUND 3500 J/KG ACROSS SD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SRN EXTENT OF
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN CANADA EXTENDS SWD INTO NERN
   MT.  THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
   ERN MT INTO WRN/SWRN ND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 45-55 KT OF DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.  CELL MERGERS/STORM CLUSTERS
   ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
   WITH THE CONVECTIVE MODE BECOMING A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT AS
   ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SEWD INTO SD AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME NRN NEB. 
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
   COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING FROM SRN NC/SC WWD
   THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  AIR MASS
   ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES 2500-3500
   J/KG/...THOUGH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
   SEVERE POTENTIAL.  AN MCV MOVING SWWD THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL AR WILL
   AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   WWD THROUGH THIS AREA.  THOUGH AGAIN...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
   LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO LOW PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...SWRN AZ/SERN CA...
   VIS IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
   AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AIDING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AS THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE MOVE WWD INTO SRN AZ. 
   DEEP ELY FLOW OVER SWRN AZ COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS ACROSS SWRN AZ INTO SERN CA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
    
   ..PETERS.. 07/17/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z