Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Jul-17-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphics (more info)
Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail
0100 UTC Tornado probabilities graphic   0100 UTC Damaging wind probabilities graphic   0100 UTC Large hail probabilities graphic
(Select thumbnails to view full images)
   
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 SE HVR 80 NE LWT 60 S GGW 25 SW GDV 30 NNE 4BQ 45 W 4BQ
   30 ENE BIL 30 E 3HT 35 NNW 3HT 55 ENE GTF 45 SE HVR.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 WNW ANJ 50 NNW GRB 35 NNW RST 30 S MCW 20 WSW BRL 35 NNE COU
   15 W MKC 25 ENE OLU 25 WNW YKN 60 N ATY 40 SSW BJI 30 E INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 55 ESE FAT
   30 ENE SCK 45 W TVL 25 ESE RNO 60 NW TPH 55 ENE U31 35 N DPG
   35 NNE EVW 35 SSE JAC 35 SSW WEY 50 S 27U 30 NW BOI 25 SSW BKE
   40 ESE PDT 25 E LWS 50 ENE GEG 40 NE 63S ...CONT... 20 ENE MBS
   30 NNE CGX DEC 20 W VIH CNU 35 NW HUT 55 WNW GCK 50 ENE LVS
   45 N ROW 40 WSW ABI 10 NNW ESF 25 N JAN 20 SSW MEM 45 SW CSV
   10 E HSS 10 SW CLT 30 NNE RDU 35 SE CHO 20 S WAL.
   
   
   
   ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   WILL LEAVE A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
   STORMS DEVELOPING EITHER ALONG FRONT OR IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
   AHEAD OF FRONT FROM NRN/CNTRL MN EWD INTO NRN WI WHERE CAP HAS
   WEAKENED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN
   DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH SINCE CAP SHOULD
   STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   OTHER ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S FROM ERN NEB
   THROUGH PARTS OF IA LATER TONIGHT IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE
   OF 40 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. SHEAR PROFILES THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
   LAYER SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
   THREAT.
   
   ...MT...
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING IN ZONE OF MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW.
   STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
   INTO THE MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WITH
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. 
    
   ..DIAL.. 07/17/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home