STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW BUF 10 SSE DUJ 30 NW ILG 25 NE NEL ...CONT... 25 SE ORF
30 WSW ORF 45 SSW PSK LEX 25 WSW BMI 10 ENE CNK 15 WSW LAA
40 NE DEN 50 NW BFF 40 SE RAP 10 ENE FSD 30 W LNR 20 S JXN
45 SE MTC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DUG 55 WNW TCS
25 E ABQ 40 W ALS 20 WSW ASE 10 SSE RWL 15 ESE LND 20 NE IDA
50 ENE BOI 25 SW LMT 70 SE EUG 25 S DLS 35 WNW PUW 85 ENE 63S
...CONT... 55 NNW GGW GDV 10 SSW Y22 40 SW ABR 40 W MSP 50 SSW IMT
140 NE CMX ...CONT... 35 WSW EHA 45 S LTS DUA 40 SW TUP 25 NNE AHN
25 NE AVL 10 NW LOZ 45 SE UIN 25 NNE MHK 50 WSW RSL 35 WSW EHA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE SSI
40 SSE VLD 25 E PIE 35 SE FMY 60 SSE FMY.
...OH VLY...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...
LONG LIVED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE WV MTS ATTM. GIVEN NWLY FLOW REGIME AND HOT UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER DOWNSTREAM...ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MOVING INTO WRN
VA. IN FACT...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE TROUGH JUST EAST
OF THE MTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH APPROACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BEFORE TSTMS WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
MCS...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
WLY...IMPINGING ON NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN THREAT.
...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID MS VLY...
A FEW TSTMS TRIED TO THRIVE IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN
IND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT SOME DEGREE OF
WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND WARM LAYER IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE HAVE
PROVEN HOSTILE TO SUSTAINED UPDRAFT GROWTH. HOWEVER...TSTMS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS VLY MAY TEND TO DEVELOP/MOVE
ESEWD INTO PARTS OF NRN IL AND PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL IND OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR A BOW ECHO TYPE OF SYSTEM GIVEN
THAT STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
NONETHELESS...CURRENT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN IA AND NRN
IL WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIND THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN AS STRONGEST LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY HAVE
CONGEALED INTO A MCS. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING
A SLY LLJ OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS...WITH THE NOSE
INTERSECTING AN E-W TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS CNTRL NEB. TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS NEB INTO WRN IA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT. THERE
IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL NEB...BUT
00 UTC LBF SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS
AROUND JUST ABOVE 700 MB AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. SO TORNADO THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE BRIEF AND ISOLD AT
BEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE BIGGER THREATS.
..RACY.. 07/08/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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