STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SW MHK 20 SW ICT 35 NNW END 40 WSW END 25 NNE CSM 40 NNE CDS
15 SSE PVW 50 SE CVS 35 SSW CVS 40 W CVS 35 S RTN 25 SSW LHX
50 NE LAR 60 S 81V 35 E 81V 30 ENE RAP 50 SE PHP HSI 25 SW MHK.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNE RRT 35 NNE BRD 35 SE EAU 15 WSW MKE 20 SW MKG 30 SSE TVC
35 NE APN 70 ENE APN 80 ENE APN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU
55 WSW SOW 55 NE SOW 25 SSE 4SL 55 S ALS 60 E GUC 45 SSW LAR RIW
30 SE MQM 40 NNW 27U 35 SSW FCA 45 NNW GTF 50 E LWT 40 NNE 4BQ
60 S Y22 40 NE PIR 25 SSE ABR 15 ENE JMS 70 NE MOT ...CONT...
25 ENE ERI 20 W ERI 25 NW ZZV 10 NNE EVV 15 N TBN 20 SSW CNU
35 NE OKC 20 S LTS 65 WNW ABI 30 SW BWD 15 NNE CLL 40 NNW BPT
35 NNW HEZ 45 NNE TCL 40 SE 5I3 40 N SHD 35 SE DOV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MTC 25 E TOL
35 N IND 30 NNE CMI 35 WSW LNR 40 SW EAU 30 SW STC 70 NNE DVL.
...LOWER MI AREA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
COMPACT VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NEWD ACROSS LK MI ATTM...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARCING FROM WRN LWR MI SWWD INTO NRN
IL...THEN NWWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NWD
INTO THE THUMB AREA WITH WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. TSTMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF
LOWER MI THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH MAINLY SHORT LINES OF
TSTMS EXPECTED. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO MIGHT OCCUR WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS BACKED INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL LOWER MI.
...UPPER MS VLY...
VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO INDICATE A WEAK MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING
ACROSS NCNTRL SD...WITH EXIT REGION SPREADING SEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
MN AND WRN WI. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TAIL END OF A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NW FROM NEAR CHICAGO NWWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. TSTMS
HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING INVOF THIS BOUNDARY...BENEATH RELATIVELY
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SEVERE HAILSTONES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST.
...PLAINS AREA...
SEVERAL AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE SHOULD EVOLVE LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE SLGT AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS
TURNED UPSLOPE WITH 50S DEW POINTS ADVECTING WWD. CU HAS BEEN
INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY...DOWNSTREAM FROM
APPROACHING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER MT. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE UNSTABLE
LOWER PLAINS THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...STRONGEST UPSLOPE/MOIST
INFLOW SHOULD EXIST FOR A POSSIBLE LONGER LIVED MCS FROM SERN
WY/SWRN NEB INTO WRN/NRN KS OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREATS.
ANOTHER AREA OF INITIATION WILL PROBABLY TAKE PLACE WITHIN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN CO...WRN KS SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TSTMS POSSIBLY
MIGRATING/DEVELOPING EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED OVER SWRN KS AND NWRN OK AND
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F HAVE LARGELY BEEN EXCEEDED. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OFFSET WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.
...COASTAL SERN STATES...
TAIL END OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY IS
MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC ATTM AND SEEMS TO BE AIDING IN STRONGER
TSTMS FROM SC NEWD INTO COASTAL NC. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...AND IS SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE TSTMS.
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. REFER TO MCD1534 FOR MORE DETAILS.
..RACY.. 06/28/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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