STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NE MTC 20 W TOL 15 ESE LAF 15 ESE DEC 15 SW SPI 25 WNW UIN
20 ESE P35 30 NE LWD 30 S ALO 10 S MCW 25 NNW FRM RWF 25 SW AXN
45 N AXN 25 SSE BJI 25 SSW HIB 30 S DLH 60 SSW IWD 30 ENE AUW
50 NE GRB 20 SW PLN 25 N APN 60 ENE OSC 55 E OSC 20 NE MTC.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WNW LTS 25 WSW LBB 50 SW CVS 50 SSE LVS 40 WSW RTN 40 NW TAD
15 E DEN 30 SE CYS 45 W BFF 20 SSE CDR 25 ESE CDR 35 WSW VTN
15 S ANW 30 NW BUB 30 ESE BUB 20 S OLU 30 ESE LNK FNB 25 N TOP
25 SSW TOP 25 S EMP 45 W CNU 35 NE PNC 25 S PNC 30 N OKC
35 WNW LTS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 35 SSE GNT
4SL 35 ESE GUC 55 SW LAR 20 SW JAC 10 WSW 3DU 35 SW CTB 20 ENE CTB
70 ESE HVR 15 NNW MLS 10 N REJ 50 WNW PIR 35 N 9V9 10 NE HON
20 NW ATY 55 ENE ABR 45 ESE JMS 30 NE JMS 15 SE DVL 60 NNW DVL
...CONT... 40 NNW JHW 20 NNW CMH 45 SSW BMG 25 ESE JEF 25 S CNU
35 ESE OKC 25 WSW FSI 25 SE BGS 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 15 SE DRT
30 WSW AUS 35 W BPT 10 SW LFT 15 NNE MEI 25 E LOZ 35 W EKN
20 SE NEL.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A NEARLY
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS AND WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI TODAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE A
COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM THE WI/MI SURFACE LOW WSWWD ACROSS IL/MO...
AND BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS KS.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS NRN IL/IND
AND LOWER MI EARLY TODAY WITH LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS EWD ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ERN WI TO NRN LOWER
MI. FORCING...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR ALL APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REVEAL PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING
SHORT LINES OF POSSIBLY SPLITTING CELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL. LOCALLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/LOWER LFC INVOF WARM
FRONT/SURFACE LOW...AND LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS...COULD FAVOR A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MN COULD ALSO BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS NEXT IMPULSE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL MN DURING THE EVENING.
...GREAT PLAINS...
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY LATE AFTERNOON
BENEATH DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION...VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS NERN OK INTO THE PNHDLS AND HIGH PLAINS COULD FUEL
ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT/S ACTIVITY IN
WEAKLY FORCED AND MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER AREA OF
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO
SERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
EDGE OF THE WLYS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY MERGING
INTO AN MCS AND TRACKING ESEWD ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
..CARBIN.. 06/28/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
|