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Jun-27-2003 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   60 E DUG 40 NNW SVC 45 W ONM 35 SSW ABQ 35 SSE SAF 40 WNW TCC
   40 WSW CVS 20 SSE ROW 35 W CNM 65 WNW MRF.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 W RRT 40 E BJI 70 S DLH 40 SE EAU 25 W LNR 35 WNW DBQ 10 NE FOD
   25 ESE FSD 25 SE BIS 60 N ISN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 NNW HUL 15 E AUG 25 N PSM 20 SSW BOS 25 S ORH 20 W BDL
   20 NNW PSF EFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 45 NW TUS
   60 E PHX 15 WNW GNT 60 NNE SAF 40 NW GLD 25 N IML 35 ENE AIA
   40 WNW CDR 35 ENE WRL 50 WNW COD 35 WNW DLN 40 ENE S80 25 SW S06
   90 ENE 63S ...CONT... 75 E ELO 45 NW IMT 30 SSE IMT 50 NNW MBL
   15 NW OSC 45 E MBS 15 SE SBN 20 NNW BMI 45 NNE COU 10 ESE OJC
   50 SSW EMP 10 WNW CSM 50 N ABI 45 ESE BWD 30 NNW CLL 35 NNW POE
   30 NNE GWO 45 NNW MSL 40 ESE BWG 35 SW CRW 20 WSW MRB 15 ESE IPT
   20 S UCA MSS.
   
   
   
   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN
   ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS DIGGING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT TOWARD THE NRN
   PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO ND AROUND PEAK HEATING WITH A
   ZONE OF BROAD ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO
   SRN MN.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
   ACROSS THIS REGION...50S DEW POINTS SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE GIVEN THE
   COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG WITH
   BROAD...STRONGLY VEERED...WARM ADVECTION PROFILES.  HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  LATEST THINKING IS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
   WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS IT SPREADS TOWARD SRN WI THIS
   EVENING.
   
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   
   LEADING EDGE OF MULTI-LAYERED MOIST MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR
   BELT IS ADVANCING EWD AT ROUGHLY 15KT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  STRONG
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF CLOUD SHIELD AND SEVERE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION OF
   STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPES OF 2500 J/KG...ACROSS INTERIOR
   PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AFTER 18Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
   THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION...PARTLY DUE TO
   MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH LEVEL BACKING
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM
   DAMAGING WINDS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WITH BOW ECHOES THAT ORIENT
   THEMSELVES PERPENDICULAR TO MEAN WIND AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS ZONE OF
   GREATEST INSTABILITY.
   
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES...
   
   WEAK UPPER RIDING WILL DOMINATE THE SRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...WITH
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POSSIBLY INDICATING A FEW MINOR VORT MAXIMA
   LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS FROM BAJA/AZ TOWARD WRN NM. 
   STRONG HEATING AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SSWWD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS
   OFF THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG
   SFC RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS TX HAS MAINTAINED MOIST LOW LEVEL
   TRAJECTORIES INTO THIS REGION FORCING NEAR 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
   FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   CONCERN.
    
    
   ..DARROW.. 06/27/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
        
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