STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 E DUG 40 NNW SVC 45 W ONM 35 SSW ABQ 35 SSE SAF 40 WNW TCC
40 WSW CVS 20 SSE ROW 35 W CNM 65 WNW MRF.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 W RRT 40 E BJI 70 S DLH 40 SE EAU 25 W LNR 35 WNW DBQ 10 NE FOD
25 ESE FSD 25 SE BIS 60 N ISN.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW HUL 15 E AUG 25 N PSM 20 SSW BOS 25 S ORH 20 W BDL
20 NNW PSF EFK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 45 NW TUS
60 E PHX 15 WNW GNT 60 NNE SAF 40 NW GLD 25 N IML 35 ENE AIA
40 WNW CDR 35 ENE WRL 50 WNW COD 35 WNW DLN 40 ENE S80 25 SW S06
90 ENE 63S ...CONT... 75 E ELO 45 NW IMT 30 SSE IMT 50 NNW MBL
15 NW OSC 45 E MBS 15 SE SBN 20 NNW BMI 45 NNE COU 10 ESE OJC
50 SSW EMP 10 WNW CSM 50 N ABI 45 ESE BWD 30 NNW CLL 35 NNW POE
30 NNE GWO 45 NNW MSL 40 ESE BWG 35 SW CRW 20 WSW MRB 15 ESE IPT
20 S UCA MSS.
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS DIGGING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO ND AROUND PEAK HEATING WITH A
ZONE OF BROAD ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO
SRN MN. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
ACROSS THIS REGION...50S DEW POINTS SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE GIVEN THE
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG WITH
BROAD...STRONGLY VEERED...WARM ADVECTION PROFILES. HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION. LATEST THINKING IS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS IT SPREADS TOWARD SRN WI THIS
EVENING.
...NEW ENGLAND...
LEADING EDGE OF MULTI-LAYERED MOIST MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR
BELT IS ADVANCING EWD AT ROUGHLY 15KT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF CLOUD SHIELD AND SEVERE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION OF
STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPES OF 2500 J/KG...ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AFTER 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION...PARTLY DUE TO
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH LEVEL BACKING
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WITH BOW ECHOES THAT ORIENT
THEMSELVES PERPENDICULAR TO MEAN WIND AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS ZONE OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY.
...SRN ROCKIES...
WEAK UPPER RIDING WILL DOMINATE THE SRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POSSIBLY INDICATING A FEW MINOR VORT MAXIMA
LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS FROM BAJA/AZ TOWARD WRN NM.
STRONG HEATING AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SSWWD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS
OFF THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SFC RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS TX HAS MAINTAINED MOIST LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES INTO THIS REGION FORCING NEAR 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
CONCERN.
..DARROW.. 06/27/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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