STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR EXTREME SE WY...WRN AND NRN
NEB...ERN SD...NW IA...AND SW MN TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW FRM 30 NNW OMA 25 ENE IML 25 ENE CYS 40 SE DGW 40 NE VTN
45 SE FAR 35 NE AXN 10 NW FRM.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW IWD 25 S LSE 25 NE P35 25 SE SZL 40 NW SGF 20 S CNU
40 S IML 20 WNW AKO 15 SW LAR 35 S CPR 45 SSW GCC 30 N PHP
20 NW JMS 20 W RRT.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 N PVW 40 SW LBB 35 NW MAF 45 W FST 45 SSE GDP 35 SW ROW
30 NW TCC 35 W EHA 15 E EHA 55 NNE AMA 35 N PVW.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 30 SSE ALM
25 S 4CR 25 E LVS 40 S GLD 45 NW GLD 25 NW 4FC 45 SSW PUC
60 SE ELY 65 NW TPH 30 ESE MHS 75 SE EUG 30 WSW BKE 30 ESE GEG
20 W FCA 20 SW CTB GTF 35 ESE 3HT 30 SSW DIK 45 ENE BIS 80 N GFK
...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 30 SW MBL 10 N CGX STL 55 SSW UNO 30 ENE FSM
40 ESE END 25 ESE CDS 75 S MRF.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE NEL 10 ENE AVP
35 NNE BGM 40 WSW MSS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 WNW NIR
35 ENE CLL 30 NW MLU 25 ENE ABY 15 SE JAX.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ERN SD/SW MN...
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER NE SD NEAR A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...AND ACROSS NE NEB WHERE A NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WAA
ON THE NOSE OF A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COINCIDE. THOUGH THE
OVERNIGHT MCS/S IN ERN NEB/WRN IA/NE KS/NW MO HAVE DEPLETED
INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA...A POOL OF RICHER MOISTURE/
STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS ERN SD/SW MN TO THE N OF THE
AREAS IMPACTED BY THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS...AND A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES
NEWD FROM NEB TO MN. THE STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN SD/WRN MN...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.
FARTHER S AND W...A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES
DIAGONALLY FROM SE KS NWWD TO A SURFACE LOW W OF MCK. THE
CONVECTION DRIVING THE OUTFLOW IN ERN KS/WRN MO SHOULD MOVE E/SEWD
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REFOCUSES
FARTHER TO THE W/NW OF THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...A STRONG CAP IS
PRESENT OVER THE WARM SECTOR IN KS /TEMPERATURES OF 15-23 C IN THE
800-700 MB LAYER/...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 F. IT
APPEARS THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY RETREAT NWD INTO NEB BY LATE
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THETA-E ADVECTION
ABOVE THE SHALLOW OUTFLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SURFACE COLD POOL.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR MCK SHOULD MOVE E/NEWD AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...AS PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPEED MAXIMA EJECTING NEWD
TOWARD WY FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER NV/UT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NLY TO ELY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ĝACROSS WRN NEB/SE WY. THE INCREASING ELY FLOW WILL ADVECT
BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WWD INTO SE WY... RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO FORM BY 00Z ACROSS SE
WY AND THEN MOVE EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS WRN/NRN NEB INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE
CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...AND 0-3 KM
SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2. IT APPEARS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO
ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS NEB/SRN SD OVERNIGHT.
...W TX/ERN NM AREA...
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MAF/AMA REVEAL AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
IN THE RANGE OF 95-100 F...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
INVOF THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE HOT TEMPERATURES/DEEP MIXING ERODES
THE CAP FROM BELOW...AND WHERE THE NW EDGE OF A MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME REDUCES DRY ENTRAINMENT. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HYBRID
MICROBURSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY ENEWD TO THE S OF NOVA
SCOTIA. N/NELY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT PERSISTS OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO THE W OF THIS LOW...ABOVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. 12Z SOUNDING FROM CAR SUGGESTS THAT SBCAPE
VALUES COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S WITH WEAK CIN. THEREFORE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MAINE SWWD INTO NH/VT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW/STORM MOTIONS.
..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/23/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
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