STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NNE ROC 30 WSW ELM 10 SSW PSB 45 W EKN 20 ENE 5I3 45 SW LOZ
25 NE HOP 10 WNW OWB 15 SE IND 40 NE LAF 35 WNW CGX 35 SSW OSH
45 NNE GRB 20 SSE ANJ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 10 SSE MLS
35 S SHR 15 WNW RIW 50 ENE MLD 50 S TWF 30 NW MLF 45 NE BCE
25 SW GUC 35 W LAR 40 SSE DGW 25 SSE CDR 15 WSW MHN 50 NE MCK
25 SSE RSL 40 SW TUL 10 NNE HOT MEM 20 ESE PAH 15 W HUF 20 SE SPI
25 WNW LWD 25 ESE YKN 20 W ATY 25 S FAR 45 ESE RRT ...CONT...
25 S HUL 40 ENE 3B1 20 SW 3B1 20 ESE BML 25 W MWN 20 SSW MPV
20 SSW RUT JFK ...CONT... 20 SW PSX 30 NNE NIR 10 N COT 65 W COT
...CONT... 80 S GBN 50 NE BLH 45 S DAG 15 WNW PMD 25 SSE BFL
50 NNE BFL 30 NE FAT 50 SSW TVL 45 SW SVE 65 SSW 4LW 60 NE 4LW
30 W LWS 55 NE 63S.
...GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN WI WITH TRAILING TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE AN EWD MOTION TODAY. COLD
MID LEVEL AIR /H5 TEMPS TO -18C/ IS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE MI
REGION...IN WAKE OF BAND OF CONVECTION NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER
OH RIVER VALLEY INTO SERN LOWER MI. CLEARING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY
AND COOLING ALOFT/LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN DESTABLIZATION
FROM SERN WI ACROSS LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
STRONGER SHEAR NEARER MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS
REGION...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION NEARER THE UPPER LOW.
STORMS NOW INCREASING ACROSS ERN IND AND WRN OH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO /REFERENCE WW 487/. SFC-6 KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AS MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THEREFORE...EVOLUTION
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OR SEVERAL SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES IS
ANTICIPATED BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN NY/WRN
PA AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING. PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL.
...MT...
VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW PROGRESSING SEWD OUT OF SRN
ALBERTA/NWRN MT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MT. AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO
THE 70S...SURFACE T-TD SPREADS SHOULD EXCEED 30F. INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING/SPREADING SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
...SWRN TX...
WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST OVER FAR SWRN
TX AND SERN NM TODAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...SRN STREAM
IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY APPROACHING BAJA CA MAY INCREASE
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THIS AREA.
..EVANS.. 06/08/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
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