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Jun- 8-2003 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 NNE ROC 30 WSW ELM 10 SSW PSB 45 W EKN 20 ENE 5I3 45 SW LOZ
   25 NE HOP 10 WNW OWB 15 SE IND 40 NE LAF 35 WNW CGX 35 SSW OSH
   45 NNE GRB 20 SSE ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 10 SSE MLS
   35 S SHR 15 WNW RIW 50 ENE MLD 50 S TWF 30 NW MLF 45 NE BCE
   25 SW GUC 35 W LAR 40 SSE DGW 25 SSE CDR 15 WSW MHN 50 NE MCK
   25 SSE RSL 40 SW TUL 10 NNE HOT MEM 20 ESE PAH 15 W HUF 20 SE SPI
   25 WNW LWD 25 ESE YKN 20 W ATY 25 S FAR 45 ESE RRT ...CONT...
   25 S HUL 40 ENE 3B1 20 SW 3B1 20 ESE BML 25 W MWN 20 SSW MPV
   20 SSW RUT JFK ...CONT... 20 SW PSX 30 NNE NIR 10 N COT 65 W COT
   ...CONT... 80 S GBN 50 NE BLH 45 S DAG 15 WNW PMD 25 SSE BFL
   50 NNE BFL 30 NE FAT 50 SSW TVL 45 SW SVE 65 SSW 4LW 60 NE 4LW
   30 W LWS 55 NE 63S.
   
   
   
   ...GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN WI WITH TRAILING TROUGH AXIS ALONG
   THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE AN EWD MOTION TODAY.  COLD
   MID LEVEL AIR /H5 TEMPS TO -18C/ IS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE MI
   REGION...IN WAKE OF BAND OF CONVECTION NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER
   OH RIVER VALLEY INTO SERN LOWER MI.  CLEARING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY
   AND COOLING ALOFT/LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN DESTABLIZATION
   FROM SERN WI ACROSS LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
   STRONGER SHEAR NEARER MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS
   REGION...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION NEARER THE UPPER LOW.
   
   STORMS NOW INCREASING ACROSS ERN IND AND WRN OH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO /REFERENCE WW 487/.  SFC-6 KM
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AS MODERATE
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES.  THEREFORE...EVOLUTION
   INTO A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OR SEVERAL SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES IS
   ANTICIPATED BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN NY/WRN
   PA AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING.  PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ...MT...
   VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW PROGRESSING SEWD OUT OF SRN
   ALBERTA/NWRN MT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MT.  AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO
   THE 70S...SURFACE T-TD SPREADS SHOULD EXCEED 30F.  INCREASING MID
   LEVEL MOISTURE/ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   DEVELOPING/SPREADING SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH AN ATTENDANT
   THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
   
   ...SWRN TX...
   WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST OVER FAR SWRN
   TX AND SERN NM TODAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
   50S.  PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE IN
   THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
   HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION.  IN ADDITION...SRN STREAM
   IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY APPROACHING BAJA CA MAY INCREASE
   CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THIS AREA.
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/08/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
        
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