STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
80 SSE MRF 45 SW ROW 45 SSW PUB 20 SSE LAR 30 SSE DGW 45 NW CDR
35 SSW PHP 35 SSW ANW 20 N RSL 35 NW P28 15 E FSI DAL 25 ESE GGG
10 S ESF 40 ESE MCB 20 W BVE ...CONT... GLS 25 NNW VCT 45 S SAT
45 NW LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E ELO 30 NW VOK
30 ENE OTM 30 W IRK 30 E MKC 35 NNE JLN 25 SSW HRO 30 NE LIT GWO
35 E MEI 20 SW MGM 15 SSE AUO 30 N MCN 35 NNW AND 10 NNW TRI
20 S UNI 20 ESE CMH 30 W MFD 40 S JXN 20 WNW FNT 40 SSE OSC
...CONT... 35 N ART 15 NW MPV 20 S AUG.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ELP
20 WNW ONM 40 E DRO 25 NNE GUC 25 NNW CAG 25 W WRL 35 S LVM
15 WNW LWT 55 ENE CTB.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE NATION. WITHIN THE TROUGH...UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY
WILL FILL AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A MODEST
BELT OF WLYS CONTINUES ALONG ITS SRN PERIPHERY. A STRONGER UPPER
LOW WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS...CARRYING NUMEROUS MIDLEVEL IMPULSES
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A MCS OR TWO ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/NRN TX INTO WRN OK. THESE TSTMS
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE MORNING...LIKELY REINFORCING THE
BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER NWWD INTO ERN CO.
SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO FORM ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN WY/CO/NM BY MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST
UPSLOPE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ACROSS SERN CO AND ERN NM.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
40-45 KT NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ATOP 20-25 KT SELY LOW LEVEL CURRENT
WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND
MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN KS/ERN NM/TX PNHDL/WRN OK OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
WITH SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE/HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT.
...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO LA...
A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX INTO LA. THE
MAIN BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED FROM SRN LA INTO CNTRL TX...AND WILL
LIKELY BE REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM TONIGHT/S MCS ROLLING SEWD
FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY BE
UNTOUCHED BY CNTRL/SRN TX MCS AND SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD EXIST FROM
CNTRL TX INTO LA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...A FEW TSTMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED WITH PERHAPS SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZE OR
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS S TX. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER THAN
FARTHER NORTH AND WITH NWLY COMPONENT BECOMING MORE WLY WITH TIME
ON TUESDAY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLD IN NATURE.
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
IT APPEARS THE ETA IS OVERDOING MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA. IT APPEARS THAT
UPSLOPE/SLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOST OF THE DAY...WITH STRONGER HEATING POTENTIAL WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS. TSTMS COULD FORM OVER THE WV/VA/PA MOUNTAINS AND
MAY PRODUCE ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS APPEARS MINIMAL.
..RACY/NADEN.. 06/04/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
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