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Jun- 2-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS WRN OK...NWRN TX
   AND A PORTION OF SWRN KS. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A
   LINE FROM 45 SE CDS 50 SSW GAG 35 WNW GAG 40 ENE LBL 25 E DDC 35
   NNW END 20 NNW ADM 40 SSW ADM 30 N MWL 65 NNE ABI 45 SE CDS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   60 SW SJT 35 NE FST 40 NNE HOB 55 NE LAA 15 ENE LBF 10 SE OLU
   15 SW FNB 10 SE OJC 35 SSE PGO 45 ENE ACT 50 NW AUS 60 SW SJT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 45 NE BML
   15 ENE CAR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 55 NE BIS
   45 SE JMS 50 SW AXN 15 E FRM 15 WSW OTM 35 NW DYR 25 ESE CBM
   20 SE MGM 20 WNW AYS SSI ...CONT... 35 N BVE 40 WSW POE 25 ESE CLL
   30 SW AUS 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 80 WNW MRF 35 ENE ELP 35 NW SVC
   50 SW CEZ 45 SSW GJT 45 SSE RKS 25 N COD 35 N HVR.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS ARE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE HIGH PLAINS
   REGION EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WELL-DEFINED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ERN MT/ERN WY AND ERN CO/WRN TX. PROFILER
   SITES INVOF THESE DISTURBANCES INDICATE INCREASING MID AND UPPER-
   LEVEL NWLY FLOW WITH AN AXIS OF 30-40KT 500MB WINDS BEING OBSERVED
   FROM ERN WY SWD INTO ERN NM.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ERN OK
   PNHDL/FAR SWRN KS WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SEWD
   THROUGH NWRN OK INTO NERN TX/NRN LA. OUTFLOW REINFORCED COLD FRONT
   STRETCHES FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD TO SURFACE LOW AND THEN INTO CNTRL
   NM. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXISTS FROM SURFACE LOW SWWD TO
   SECONDARY LOW OVER SERN NM.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   AIRMASS INVOF AND S OF WARM FRONT FROM SWRN KS SWD ACROSS OK INTO
   TX CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
   WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR N AS CNTRL OK. STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. REGIONAL
   RADAR IMAGERY/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPING LINES OF
   STORMS OVER SWRN KS AND THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN TX ARE BEGINNING
   TO ESTABLISH MORE WIDESPREAD COLD POOLS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
   60S ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS SWD INTO THE FAR NWRN TX PNHDL. 
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
   INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINES
   MOVE ESEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SWRN KS/OK/N TX. UPDRAFT
   REGENERATION ALONG EXPANDING COLD POOLS IN COMBINATION WITH
   STRENGTHENING 40-50KT SLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO ACCELERATE
   LATER THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING DAMAGING DOWNBURST
   POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGESTS
   THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
   LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND
   LONGEVITY/STRENGTH.
   
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AHEAD OF ERN MT/WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
   ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB
   TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
   WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...STORMS OVER ERN WY/NEB PNHDL INTO NERN CO WILL POSE AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS
   BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES.       
    
   ..MEAD.. 06/01/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
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