STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS WRN OK...NWRN TX
AND A PORTION OF SWRN KS. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A
LINE FROM 45 SE CDS 50 SSW GAG 35 WNW GAG 40 ENE LBL 25 E DDC 35
NNW END 20 NNW ADM 40 SSW ADM 30 N MWL 65 NNE ABI 45 SE CDS.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 SW SJT 35 NE FST 40 NNE HOB 55 NE LAA 15 ENE LBF 10 SE OLU
15 SW FNB 10 SE OJC 35 SSE PGO 45 ENE ACT 50 NW AUS 60 SW SJT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 45 NE BML
15 ENE CAR.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MOT 55 NE BIS
45 SE JMS 50 SW AXN 15 E FRM 15 WSW OTM 35 NW DYR 25 ESE CBM
20 SE MGM 20 WNW AYS SSI ...CONT... 35 N BVE 40 WSW POE 25 ESE CLL
30 SW AUS 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 80 WNW MRF 35 ENE ELP 35 NW SVC
50 SW CEZ 45 SSW GJT 45 SSE RKS 25 N COD 35 N HVR.
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS ARE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ERN MT/ERN WY AND ERN CO/WRN TX. PROFILER
SITES INVOF THESE DISTURBANCES INDICATE INCREASING MID AND UPPER-
LEVEL NWLY FLOW WITH AN AXIS OF 30-40KT 500MB WINDS BEING OBSERVED
FROM ERN WY SWD INTO ERN NM.
AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ERN OK
PNHDL/FAR SWRN KS WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SEWD
THROUGH NWRN OK INTO NERN TX/NRN LA. OUTFLOW REINFORCED COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD TO SURFACE LOW AND THEN INTO CNTRL
NM. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXISTS FROM SURFACE LOW SWWD TO
SECONDARY LOW OVER SERN NM.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
AIRMASS INVOF AND S OF WARM FRONT FROM SWRN KS SWD ACROSS OK INTO
TX CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR N AS CNTRL OK. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPING LINES OF
STORMS OVER SWRN KS AND THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN TX ARE BEGINNING
TO ESTABLISH MORE WIDESPREAD COLD POOLS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS SWD INTO THE FAR NWRN TX PNHDL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINES
MOVE ESEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SWRN KS/OK/N TX. UPDRAFT
REGENERATION ALONG EXPANDING COLD POOLS IN COMBINATION WITH
STRENGTHENING 40-50KT SLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO ACCELERATE
LATER THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING DAMAGING DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND
LONGEVITY/STRENGTH.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF ERN MT/WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ELSEWHERE...STORMS OVER ERN WY/NEB PNHDL INTO NERN CO WILL POSE AN
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES.
..MEAD.. 06/01/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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