STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW RAP 55 N PHP 45 NE MBG 40 ESE JMS 40 SSW TVF 30 SE TVF
15 NNE BJI 50 W HIB 20 SE BRD STC 15 NNW SPW 30 WNW OMA 30 SW BIE
25 NNW SLN 20 SE RSL 50 NNE DDC 20 NNE GCK 45 WNW GCK 25 ENE LAA
25 NNE LHX 40 E COS 35 N COS 20 SW FCL 15 E LAR 20 WSW RAP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E ELO 60 NNW EAU
15 ENE MCW 30 N STJ 30 N EMP 30 SSW HUT LBL 35 NNE CAO 50 S ALS
35 SE DRO 20 ESE CEZ 50 SE CNY 40 NW GJT 15 SSW RWL 35 ESE IDA
15 ESE SUN 20 WNW BOI 60 NNW BNO 30 SSE YKM 40 N EAT 40 NNW 4OM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTB
40 WSW GTF 20 NNE LVM 35 ESE MLS 40 W DIK 40 NNE MOT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 45 SSW LUL
35 WSW 0A8 20 NNE GAD 20 SSE TYS 30 NNE HKY 20 N GSO 20 N RDU
30 E RWI 15 WNW HSE.
...CO/NW KS/NE/SD/WRN MN...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS
OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT...BROAD-SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE OVER A LARGE AREA RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60 F WERE PRESENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ERN WY
AND SW SD. MUCAPE VALUES ARE 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG
WITH 50 TO 60 KT ACROSS ERN CO/WRN NE. THIS SUGGESTS...ROTATING
STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS DEEPER. STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM
SHOULD MAKE LARGE HAIL A THREAT AS AN MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS NE AND
PUSHES INTO SERN SD AND WRN MN LATE TONIGHT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE MCS GETS DEVELOPED AND CONVECTION BECOME
ELEVATED.
...SRN AL/SRN-CNTRL GA/CNTRL-NRN FL/WRN SC...
SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED THE INITIATION OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SERN US WITH THE LARGEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS ERN
GA AND WRN SC. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONVECTION REMAINS MULTICELLULAR. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE
RELATIVELY STEEP ACROSS SRN GA AND SRN-ERN SC WHICH WILL RESULT IN
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. SEVERE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SFC TEMPS FALL AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES.
..BROYLES.. 05/19/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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