STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 S EAR 50 NNE OMA 25 ENE LWD 20 NE DYR 40 N HEZ 45 SSW SHV
40 N BWD 70 NNW ABI 50 WSW P28 30 S HLC 50 S EAR.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BPT 40 W BPT
35 E CLL 15 SW TPL 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 25 NNE FST
30 NE BGS 40 SW CDS 35 W GAG 35 SW GCK 30 WSW LHX 45 N DRO
30 SW 4HV 60 SSE ELY 30 NE U31 50 W OWY 35 WNW TWF 45 ESE PIH
30 E RKS 35 ENE CYS 20 ENE AIA 15 NW GCC 55 ENE BIL 30 NNE HVR
...CONT... 70 NE MOT 35 E FAR MSP 35 NW DBQ 35 NE MLI 25 E BMG
45 NNW TYS 25 ESE 0A8 20 SW GPT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 20 NNW MLB.
...MIDDLE TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...
ONGOING FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS...CURRENTLY OVER SERN NEB/
SWRN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD INTO ERN KS/NRN MO OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS IT MOVES INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...REFER
TO VALID SPC WW AND SWOMCD FOR THIS AREA.
VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE SW FLANK
OF THIS MCS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHICH IS CLOSER TO A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS. A SWLY 25-30 KT
SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM OK INTO WRN MO WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SEVERE MCS...ALLOWING IT TO CONTINUE
ON ITS SEWD TRACK THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LLJ IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT BY LATE EVENING AND VEER TO WLY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO SERN KS/NERN OK TO SRN
MO/NRN AR OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE MCS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...POTENTIALLY REACHING SERN MO/
NERN AR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS MCS WILL
BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 01-04Z...BEFORE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME PRIMARILY ELEVATED.
...ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS...CURRENTLY OVER FAR SWRN
AR/FAR SERN OK...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD INTO NERN TX/NRN LA
THIS EVENING. 00Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS
MCS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MCS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 06Z
AS IT MOVES INTO SRN LA...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
STABILIZE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER NORTH FROM NRN TX INTO AR OVERNIGHT...LIMITING
GOOD SHEAR PROFILES TO MAINTAIN THIS MCS INTO SRN LA.
...SRN OK / NRN TX...
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX IS VERY UNSTABLE...THOUGH
00Z OUN/FTW SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS STORM TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
NORTH CENTRAL TX WHERE THE AIR MASS IS CAPPED. UNTIL THEN...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AND OTHER
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...GIVEN SFC-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300
M2/S2.
..PETERS.. 05/14/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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