STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF NE MO AND CNTRL/NRN IL TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 SSE OTM 35 NNW PIA 15 NNE MMO 50 NNW DNV 25 SE CMI ALN COU
   40 SW IRK 35 SSE OTM.
   
   SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
   THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IL...PARTS OF SRN LWR
   MI...WRN OH...MUCH OF IN...AR...ERN TN AND MO TO THE RIGHT OF A
   LINE FROM JVL MKE MKG FNT 35 SSE DTW DAY EVV PAH 30 ESE LIT TXK PRX
   MKO JLN MKC P35 OTM MLI JVL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 WSW BUF ELM 25 NE ACY ...CONT... 10 SSW HSE 30 SW GSO CSV JAN
   SAT JCT BWD BVO EMP TOP DSM ALO CWA 50 S ESC 25 NE PLN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM FAY AVL
   10 WSW ANB MCB 25 S LCH CRP 35 S ALI 15 WNW MFE ...CONT...
   20 S P07 70 SSE MAF 30 W ABI LTS 40 SW EMP 40 SSW RSL 40 NNW EHA
   45 NNW CAO ALS BCE MLF ELY U31 65 N SAC 30 W MHS ONP 20 WNW CLM
   ...CONT... 35 NE 63S LWS BOI 40 SW SUN IDA JAC WRL 50 SSE 81V AIA
   LBF GRI 10 SW SUX FRM 20 NW EAU 10 NNE MQT ...CONT... 30 W ART
   15 SE ISP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 10 WNW PBI
   30 NW MIA 55 WNW MIA 20 SE FMY 25 NNW FMY 15 NNE SRQ 45 NNE PIE
   35 SSE GNV 30 WNW DAB 20 S DAB VRB.
   
   MODELS ALL SUGGEST MID/UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH INDICATES STRONG MID/UPPER JET
   STREAK DEVELOPING EAST OF TROUGH AXIS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
   WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
   INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SUPPORTING RAPIDLY DEEPENING
   LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   
   STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
   INTENSIFICATION OF WIND FIELDS/ASSOCIATED SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTS
   A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING INTO THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.  SURFACE DEW POINTS
   AROUND 70F ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE
   THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS
   WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   ...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
   LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI ALONG/
   NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTING EXTENSIVE CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM...
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MISSOURI ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS
   MORNING WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET...AND SHIFT
   EASTWARD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  LEAVING
   SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE...FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR OF
   SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS PROGGED INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY MIDDAY... 
   THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY 11/00Z.  MEAN MIXED
   LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY...SUPPORTIVE OF
   RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10/21Z
   NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY.
   
   MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SURFACE
   PRESSURE FALLS BECOME FOCUSED ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...NEAR
   SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON...
   WHERE/WHEN HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF EVOLVING
   SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...FROM NORTH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/EASTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 10/21Z
   AND 11/00Z.
   
   ONSET OF RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
   ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
   IN INTENSIFYING SUPERCELLS...AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES NORTHEASTWARD
   OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY INTENSE SQUALL LINE ALONG
   SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE THROUGH
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE EVENING.  SQUALL LINE IS
   EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SURGE OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY MOMENTUM
   ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET...PROGGED
   AROUND 100 KT BY 11/12Z ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
   SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  VERY STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
   LIKELY ALONG THIS AXIS...AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   OUT AHEAD OF MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH/JET STREAK SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
   THROUGH UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL AID CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING...IN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.  STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
   NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
   WESTERLIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
   CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH LOW FLOW/SHEAR WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  THIS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
   
   ..KERR/JEWELL.. 05/10/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z