STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SE KS...ERN OK...NE
TX...CENTRAL AND SRN MO...MUCH OF AR...SRN IL...EXTREME WRN KY AND
TN. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSE DAL 15 N DUA 20 SW BVO 20 SSE EMP 15 ENE TOP 35 NW STL
40 NNW SLO 45 SSE MTO 10 S EVV 45 SSE PAH 60 SW MEM 10 ENE ELD
25 NNE GGG 15 SE DAL.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNE SSI 40 NNE AYS 60 SSE MCN 35 NNE ABY 15 NNW CEW 30 NE MOB
40 WNW MOB 40 WSW LUL 15 SE HEZ 45 N VCT 25 ESE HDO 10 SSE HDO
50 W HDO 45 NNE JCT 15 ENE SEP 30 NNW DAL 55 NNE ADM 45 NE OKC
35 NW PNC 25 N HUT 15 ESE CNK 20 W P35 20 WNW SPI 10 NNW DEC
30 ENE IND 35 NNE DAY 30 SW ERI FKL 15 N LBE 20 ENE MGW 25 ENE CRW
30 NNW 5I3 35 S JKL 35 WNW HSS 15 SE HSS 10 ESE HKY 15 SW GSO
30 SSE RIC 10 NNE ORF.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DAB
45 SSE GNV 30 NE CTY 10 E TLH 15 WNW PFN ...CONT... 35 NE CRP
25 NW ALI 45 WSW COT 25 NNW DRT 25 NNW SJT 25 NNE ABI 10 N FSI
40 NW END 45 NNE EHA 45 SSE ALS 30 SW FMN 70 N INW 45 WSW LAS
40 ENE FAT 50 WNW TVL 60 NNE SVE 25 SSW BYI 30 NNE RKS 30 SE AIA
30 WSW ALO MTC ...CONT... 50 W 3B1 30 S HUL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW HVR
65 WSW GGW 40 NW MLS 35 WNW 4BQ 15 NW SHR 20 NNE WEY 30 E S80
40 SSW GEG 40 NW 4OM.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEB SWD THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
BIG BEND OF TX. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BROAD SWLY TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
NOW OVER CENTRAL OK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER
ERN KS INTO ERN OK THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
AIR INTRUSION S OF THIS JET STREAM EXTENDS OVER NERN TX ENEWD INTO
THE TN VALLEY ENHANCING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER GA INTO PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS.
...KS...OK...MO...AR...
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER SERN
KS/NERN OK BORDER. PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET LOOKS TO BE
DEVELOPING ATTM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AS SURFACE DRYLINE
EXTENDS SSWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK INTO N CENTRAL TX. PRESSURE FALLS
NEAR 2.4 MB/2HR IS CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL MO. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
ERN KS INTO ERN OK INDICATING THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MO AS MLCAPE IS 3500-4500
J/KG ATTM WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND OVER THE OZARKS. THUS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW/QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
...SC AND GA...
COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD AIR DAMMING
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS HAS PROVIDED FOCUS OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS AROUND 50-55 KT SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STORMS WITH SOME
TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
..MCCARTHY.. 05/06/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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