STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
   EVENING ACROSS SERN KS...ERN OK...NERN TX...MO...AND AR.  THE MDT
   RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DAL 30 SSE DUA 20 NNW
   BVO 15 ENE TOP 50 SSE P35 55 S UIN 20 SSW CGI 10 WNW MEM 35 ESE PBF
   25 W ELD 30 NNW GGG 35 E DAL.
   
   SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
   TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CRE 45 SW AGS 30 SSW ANB 30 SSW
   CBM 30 W JAN 15 SSW LFK 25 SSE CLL 35 SW AUS 50 ESE BWD DUA 30 WSW
   TUL 25 SSW HUT 30 ENE RSL 30 W P35 35 S SPI 20 WSW BMG 20 ENE DAY
   25 W CAK 10 N JHW 25 ENE BUF 10 WNW ELM 30 NW AOO 30 N CRW 40 SSW
   LEX 30 WSW CSV 50 NW AND 30 SW GSO 50 SW RIC 35 NE ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE HUM
   20 ENE LCH 30 NNW HOU 40 N NIR 25 WNW HDO 55 SW SJT 40 N SJT
   20 WSW ADM 30 ESE OKC 30 NNW OKC 20 NW CSM 35 NE DHT 30 W CAO
   25 SW PGA 55 SW ELY 25 SW EKO 40 NW ENV 55 N PUC 50 WSW CAG
   15 N FCL 50 E LIC 40 SSE GLD 35 NW CNK 35 NW OMA 30 S FOD
   30 NE CID 40 NW CGX 40 SSE AZO 20 NE TOL ...CONT... 45 W 3B1
   35 S HUL ...CONT... 30 S SAV 15 N MGR 10 W PFN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW HVR 60 NE LWT
   40 WSW MLS 35 NE COD 35 N 27U 25 SSE GEG 45 NW 4OM.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE / BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
   PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   CONUS.  SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
   PATTERN...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURES LIKELY TO BE ONE
   MOVING INTO SWRN KS AND THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW NOW OVER OK IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD
   THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE BAROCLINIC
   ZONE OVER NERN OK / NRN AR MOVES NWD INTO MO / SERN KS MOVES NWD
   AHEAD OF LOW.  FURTHER NORTHEAST...THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE LAGGING ROUGHLY
   W-E ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
   FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX
   AND THE SERN QUARTER OF OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATTM.  AS
   SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES NWD...THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
   SPREAD NWD INTO SERN KS / SRN MO.  MEANWHILE...DRY LINE IS FORECAST
   TO MIX EWD INTO ERN OK / NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON.  
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SERN KS / SWRN MO ATTM.  AS UPPER
   FEATURE NOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES NEWD...STORMS SHOULD
   BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE SURFACE-BASED THIS MORNING INTO
   EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
   RETREATS NWD.  LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS
   ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO NERN TX ALONG
   DRYLINE IN RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AS SECOND UPPER FEATURE
   APPROACHES FROM THE SWRN STATES.
   
   AIRMASS NEAR AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT / AHEAD OF DRYLINE
   WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON AS STEEP
   /AROUND 8 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES PERSIST.  AS 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OVERSPREADS 2500 TO 4500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE...EXPECT
   DEVELOPING STORMS TO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR.  ATTM...IT
   APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK SOUTH OF
   WARM FRONT ALONG DRYLINE.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   ACROSS ERN OK AND NERN TX...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF OUTFLOW OR OTHER MESOSCALE
   BOUNDARIES.  GREATER TORNADO THREAT -- INCLUDING A THREAT FOR A
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO -- WILL LIKELY EXIST NEAR RETREATING
   WARM FRONT / EAST AND NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW WHERE BACKED LOW-
   LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /
   HELICITY.
   
   OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS ACROSS
   MO / AR...AND SHOULD CROSS THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
   
   
   
   ...TN VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES / CAROLINAS...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY...WITH
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF MS / AL / GA.  STORMS
   SHOULD REDEVELOP / INCREASE INVOF LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY AS AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
   FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   NEAR AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE /
   BECOME SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHERE MOST FAVORABLE WIND FIELD WILL EXIST.
   
   ...OH VALLEY REGION...
   NARROW AXIS OF 60S DEWPOINTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ATTM
   AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING...RESULTING IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY
   AFTERNOON.  MODERATE / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
   SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY ORGANIZE LINEARLY...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS / HAIL THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS.  THREAT SHOULD
   DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
   
   ..GOSS/NADEN.. 05/06/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z