STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS SERN AR...NERN
   LA...NRN MS AND NRN AL. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
   FROM 35 SW MEM 20 NNE UOX 20 WSW MSL 20 E HSV 20 NNE GAD 25 SW ANB
   0A8 JAN 40 S ELD ELD 35 N ELD 40 NE PBF 35 SW MEM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 ENE SAV 50 NW ESF 45 WNW LFK 45 SSE DAL 30 NNW PRX 30 SSE HRO
   35 W POF 20 WSW EVV 25 SE MFD 35 WSW HLG 35 W BLF 25 W HKY
   10 E ILM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS
   20 ESE TPL 15 NE FTW 10 ESE TUL 15 SSW HUF 25 ESE LAF 45 NE LAF
   20 NE SBN TVC ...CONT... 15 N PBG 20 SSW PSF 10 SSE ISP ...CONT...
   15 E JAX 30 WNW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HVR 30 WSW Y22
   10 N MCW 30 NE P35 15 N TOP 15 SSE DDC 15 N EHA 20 WNW LHX
   20 NE COS 15 SE 4FC 40 SSW RWL 30 W JAC 65 N BOI 25 SSW HQM.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PLAN VIEW PROFILER DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 75-85KT JET MAX CURRENTLY OVER
   CNTRL AR/LA TRANSLATING ENEWD. TWO PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
   EXPECTED TO FOCUS THE MOST INTENSE TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. ONE IS
   THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW OVER ERN MI SWWD
   ALONG THE OH RIVER TO A SECONDARY LOW OVER ERN OK/WRN AR. THE
   SECOND ONE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM A SUB-SYNOPTIC
   LOW OVER SERN AR EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF MS...AL AND GA.
   
   ...OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST/SERN U.S...
   THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ALONG 
   E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN AR EWD INTO CNTRL AL.
   00Z SOUNDINGS FROM JACKSON MS AND BIRMINGHAM AL INDICATE A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TO THE S OF THIS OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. MOREOVER...OBSERVED
   HODOGRAPHS INDICATE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS. 
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD INTO CNTRL MS/AL TONIGHT AS
   FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AR
   OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES AS 75-85KT SPEED MAX
   TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO REMAINS
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD INTO SC TO S OF COOL WEDGE IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
    
   ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS
   MUCH OF TN AND SRN KY THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING A NARROW INSTABILITY
   AXIS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT INVOF THE OH RIVER. STRONG TO SEVERE
   TSTMS ONGOING FROM NWRN TN INTO NRN KY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
   NWD MOVEMENT OF FINE LINE EVIDENT ON THE LOUISVILLE KY RADAR
   SUGGESTS THAT RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS TO THE S WILL EVENTUALLY
   STABILIZE REMAINDER OF WARM SECTOR S OF SYNOPTIC FRONT.
   
   ...NWRN PA/WRN NY...
   REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS MOVING
   ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO...PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
   RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WRN NY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS AS MUCAPES WILL
   APPROACH 500 J/KG. THEREFORE...LOW HAIL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
   ADDED TO THIS AREA. EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED FOR A
   CATEGORICAL RISK HOWEVER.
   
   ...ERN NEB INTO WRN IA...
   FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   N-CNTRL NEB IN CONJUNCTION WITH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY WAS QUITE LIMITED ON THE 00Z OMAHA
   SOUNDING. HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
   COOLING/STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
    
   ..MEAD.. 05/05/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z