STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 052130Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 NNE CBM 20 S GWO 45 E ELD 40 NE ELD 65 W MEM 25 SSE JBR
   40 ENE DYR 20 N BWG 50 SW LEX 30 SSE LEX JKL 45 NW TRI 25 WNW TYS
   25 S MSL 25 NNE CBM.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 NE ARG PAH 20 NW LEX 25 S HTS 25 N TRI 15 E CHA 25 NNW BHM
   10 SW JAN 25 ENE GGG 45 SE PRX 40 E PRX 55 N HOT 15 NE ARG.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 NNW FYV 40 N POF 25 SE MVN 30 SSE BMG DAY 40 SE FDY 20 NNW ZZV
   20 NW BKW 20 NNW SPA 25 S AND 15 ESE AUO 50 SSW LUL 20 SSW ESF
   55 NE CLL 25 E ACT 30 SE DAL 15 N PRX 10 NNE MKO 15 NNW FYV.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 NNW FWA 25 SSW AZO 15 SSW GRR 15 NE GRR 25 SW MBS 10 SSE MBS
   30 E FNT 10 SSE DTW 15 N TOL 30 W TOL 45 NE FWA 45 NNW FWA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JAX 30 WNW CTY
   ...CONT... 15 NNE GLS 30 NE AUS DAL 10 ESE TUL BMG 20 SW FDY
   40 SSE SBN 20 NE SBN TVC ...CONT... 25 NE ERI 30 NNW CXY
   25 ENE SBY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HVR 25 N REJ
   45 S 9V9 25 NNE GRI 45 NNE RSL 15 SSE DDC 15 N EHA 20 WNW LHX
   25 NNE COS SNY 25 E RWL 30 SSE WEY 25 W DLN 85 WNW FCA.
   
   ...AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...IS EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN AR NEWD ACROSS NRN MS...TN AND SRN
   KY. 
   
   ...MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION NEWD INTO KY...
   AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE
   BEING AIDED BY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A 
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN TX. THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ENEWD AT 65 KT AND IF IT MAINTAINS THIS
   CURRENT SPEED/DIRECTION...WOULD BE LOCATED NEAR MEM AT 06/00Z AND
   INTO ERN KY BY 06/06Z. THE STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
   EAST CENTRAL AR NEWD INTO SRN KY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
   FORCING COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 60-70 KT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS. THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY AND 30 KT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM INDICATES TORNADOES
   ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME OF THEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
   STRONG. 
   
   ...NRN LA/CENTRAL MS...
   THE HIGH RISK HAS BEEN LIFTED NWD OUT OF NRN LA AND CENTRAL MS AS
   18Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED AND SOME QUESTION TO
   HOW MUCH LIFTING WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INITIATE STORMS. HOWEVER...
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SO A MODERATE RISK
   IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS AREA.    
   
   ...NWRN AR SWD INTO ERN TX...
   AREA REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS
   DEVELOPED FROM S OF PGO TO ABOUT 50 SE OF DAL. MUCAPE VALUES RANGE
   FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG...BUT THE 18Z SOUNDING AT FTW AND SHV SHOW
   A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. STORMS THAT CAN BECOME
   SURFACE BASED CERTAINLY WOULD BECOME SEVERE AND THERE IS ENOUGH
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR HAIL WITH THOSE THAT DON'T BECOME SURFACE
   BASED. IF STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...TORNADOES WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ...AL NEWD INTO ERN TN...
   CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD NRN AL/GA AND ERN TN.
   AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM THIS CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD
   DESTABILIZE LATE TODAY AS LIFTING INCREASES FROM APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ALONG CONVECTIVE
   BOUNDARIES LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
   UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ...SRN LWR MI...
   VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING
   IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR PLUS THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED
   SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL. SEE MCD 769.
   
   ..IMY.. 05/05/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z