STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS
   OF NERN TX...SRN AR...NRN LA AND CENTRAL MS.  THIS HIGH RISK IS TO
   THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HEZ 30 NW ESF 45 NNE LFK 10 SW GGG 45
   SSE PRX 45 E PRX 15 SSW HOT 10 N PBF UOX 20 NW CBM 15 NNW MEI 25 SE
   JAN 15 N HEZ.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX AND SERN
   OK MUCH OF AR...NRN HALF OF LA...INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN AND
   CENTRAL AL AND NWRN GA.  THE MDT RISK SURROUNDS THE HIGH RISK TO
   THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ARG 30 SSW PAH 20 S BWG 25 NW CSV 35
   SSE CSV 25 SE RMG 10 NNW AUO 35 SSE MEI 10 ESE ESF 30 NNW LFK 20
   WNW PRX 15 ESE FYV 15 N ARG.
   
   THERE IS ALSO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 ENE MKO 55 ESE TBN 30 SSE SPI 35 W CGX 20 NNE BEH 20 N TOL
   15 SE PKB 10 NW AVL 20 N CAE 30 N SAV 45 NNE MGR 40 NW GPT
   30 NNE LCH 45 SSW LFK 30 NNW CLL 30 E ACT DAL MLC 20 ENE MKO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 25 NE PIR
   55 NNE BUB 40 W BIE 15 SE MHK 45 ESE ICT 50 SSW P28 15 E EHA
   50 NE LAA 55 NW AKO 15 WNW RKS 30 SSE WEY 25 W DLN 85 WNW FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS 30 NE AUS
   25 NNW DAL 40 SSW JLN 30 E TBN 10 NNW STL 20 WSW PIA 30 SSW DBQ
   25 E RST 50 NE EAU 10 W IMT 35 ESE ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SYR 30 WSW ALB
   10 WNW ISP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLB 30 NW
   FMY.
   
   
   
   ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
   TONIGHT...
   
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NRN
   PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SWRN U.S. EWD AND NEWD OVER
   THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. 
   MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM SWRN
   CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
   RAPIDLY THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
   
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW OVER NERN IA WITH AN
   OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO SWRN INDIANA.  A COLD FRONT THEN
   EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH ANOTHER LOW OVER S CENTRAL OK/N CENTRAL TX WWD
   INTO SERN NM.  ALSO...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN
   INDIANA SWD/SEWD THROUGH ERN MIDDLE TN AND NERN GA...THEN EWD
   ACROSS SRN PARTS OF SC.  
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY EXTEND E-W ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM SRN
   AR INTO N CENTRAL AL.  LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM SWRN LA INTO
   NWRN MS AS 70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM SRN NM ENEWD THROUGH
   CENTRAL AR INTO S CENTRAL KY.  THUS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PREVALENT
   ACROSS THE REGION AT 50-55 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 60-65
   KT THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS IS POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS
   THE REGION WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 4000 J/KG.  WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS AIR MASS WILL
   REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG.  COMBINATION OF DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
   SEVERAL SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES FROM NERN TX EWD INTO WRN AL THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. 
   
   MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL TX MOVES
   VERY LITTLE TODAY...BUT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SWD INTO LA WILL MOVE
   NWD LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS LA MOVES NWD INTO AR. 
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE NWD INTO AR
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
    
   ..MCCARTHY.. 05/05/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z