STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW HOP 10 WSW ARG 25 SSW HRO 30 WSW TUL 10 SE P28 20 NNE LBL
20 ESE PUB DEN 25 ENE LAR 60 NE DGW 20 WSW RAP 40 WNW VTN
15 SE BBW 25 E CNK 10 NNW MKC 55 S UIN 30 NNE ALN 20 SW HUF
40 WSW SDF 15 WNW HOP.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SE P07 30 ESE HOB 50 WNW LBB 45 WNW CDS 70 N ABI 10 SSW ABI
45 N JCT 20 SSW DRT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SRQ 20 N MLB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW P07 25 NE CNM
25 S RTN 25 WSW MTJ 45 NW GJT 45 NW PUC 45 E ELY 40 ENE BFL
45 WNW PRB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S HQM 50 NNW PDT
15 ESE S06 30 NE BZN 35 ENE 81V 20 NW SUX ALO 30 WSW TOL
10 SSE CAK 30 ESE MGW 25 WNW BLF 35 NNW TYS 20 E MKL 30 SW GLH
50 NW ESF 40 E PSX.
...SYNOPSIS...
COLD LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS JUST OFF NRN CA COAST WITH SLOW
FILLING THRU THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOCATED
HIGH PLAINS WITH CONFLUENT WLY FLOW ACROSS GREAT LAKES. WEAK
S/WV/MID LEVEL LOW CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE EWD.
SFC LOW N OF GREAT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN IL
TO ERN KS AND WRN OK. CONVECTIVE MCS NRN MO CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS MID MS VALLEY RESULTING IN COLD POOL PRODUCING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. S OF
FRONT/BOUNDARY SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD
ACROSS PLAINS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS LOWER MO VALLEY...
MCS CONTINUES EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY IN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
WWD ACROSS MO INTERSECTING FRONTAL ZONE SERN KS. WITH THE STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS AREA OF 8-9C/KM AND STRONG HEATING IN
WARM SECTOR...AIRMASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG. AS CAP WEAKENS STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP VICINITY BOUNDARIES. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT...MULTICELLS WILL BE STORM MODE
WITH PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FRONT RANGE DURING AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
VEERING SHEAR PROFILES STORMS THAT DEVELOP MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL DOMINANT THREAT. A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VEERING PROFILES ENHANCING HAIL
THREAT ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO N OF FRONTAL
ZONE IN AREA OF FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT VICINITY NE/KS BORDER OVERNIGHT. AGAIN LACK OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT DAMAGING WIND CONCERN.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NWWD INTO SWRN TX. WITH DEWPOINTS
TO AROUND 60F AS FAR W AS PECOS RIVER VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STRONG
HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG. AGAIN SHEAR RATHER WEAK THIS AREA..BUT WITH
DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN LOW LEVEL
SUGGESTS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LARGE
HAIL THREAT.
...CA CENTRAL VALLEY...
WITH SFC/UPPER COLD LOW REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE NRN CA...FAVORABLE
VEERNG SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE LOW TOPPED ROTATING STORMS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7-8C/KM WILL COMPENSATE FOR EXPECTED MARGINAL CAPES
LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ROTATING STORMS.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES OF 9C/KM AND VORT LOBE ROTATING NEWD
ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NRN NV INTO SWRN ID. COLD
AIR ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH
BRIEF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
...SRN FL...
SHEAR HAS WEAKENED WITH SOME DRYING SINCE YESTERDAY ACROSS S FL.
HOWEVER WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPES DURING
AFTERNOON AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AGAIN PRIMARY THREAT.
..HALES.. 04/28/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
|