STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 S MOB GPT 40 E MCB 20 NW LUL MEI 35 ENE CBM 50 NNW MSL PAH
   40 SE MVN 45 SSW BMG LEX JKL 50 SE LOZ TYS 45 ESE CHA 25 NNE AHN
   CAE CRE ...CONT... SSI 30 N GNV 25 WSW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ISN 30 E RAP
   50 NW GCK 40 SSW LAA ASE PUC EKO LOL SAC SFO ...CONT... 30 NNE OTH
   PDT 45 SW GEG 30 NNW 63S.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW HUM BTR
   50 NW JAN 40 ENE LIT JLN TOP 50 NW LWD MLI 40 S SBN 30 SSW ERI
   15 NNE BAF BOS.
   
   --- SYNOPSIS ---
   PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
   OVER CONUS...AS CENTRAL STATES DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE EVOLVES INTO
   POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE FROM
   OZARKS EARLY IN PERIOD EWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY...REACHING SRN
   APPALACHIANS BY 26/12Z.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
   ENEWD TOWARD WV...WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER DARK
   INVOF NERN NC/VA TIDEWATER REGION.  BLENDED DRYLINE/COLD FRONT --
   NOW ANALYZED FROM SWRN MO/CENTRAL AR SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX --
   SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD...INTO
   PORTIONS MS/AL DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING.  GREAT MAJORITY OF
   CONVECTIVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN TWO REGIMES...
   1. ACROSS AL/GA AND POSSIBLY INTO SC...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
   INVOF COMBINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT REINFORCED BY
   PRIOR CONVECTION 
   2. IN ARC OF OCCLUDED FRONTAL FORCING E-NE OF SFC LOW...FROM LOWER
   OH VALLEY ACROSS PORTIONS KY/TN.
   
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ORE/NRN CA DURING DAY WILL
   COMBINE WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS
   INLAND...SPREADING/EXPANDING GEN TSTM THREAT INLAND FROM EARLY-
   PERIOD POTENTIAL OVER COASTAL AREAS.
   
   --- DEEP SOUTH ---
   SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH EITHER MCS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS MS/AL...AND/OR WITH
   ADDITIONAL WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN INTERIM.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES...ESPECIALLY INVOF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MS
   AND SRN AL...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
   THIS MORNING.
   
   SUBSEQUENTLY...CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY
   DEVELOP INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT...WHERE AFTERNOON
   HEATING AND RICHLY MOIST GULF TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG.  NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ARE
   EXPECTED WITH UP TO NEAR 60 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR...SUPPORTING
   POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING BOW ECHOES. 
   ACCORDINGLY...THERE ARE PROBABILITIES ASSIGNED TO WIND...HAIL AND
   TORNADOES WARRANTING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.  SOME UNCERTAINTIES
   REMAIN REGARDING MESOSCALE POSITIONING OF BOUNDARY...AND RISK
   UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT ZONE ONCE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
   MORE PRECISELY INFLUENCED ITS POSITION.
   
   ALSO BY AFTERNOON...WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY INTO SRN AL/SERN MS...WEAKENING/VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW
   WILL REDUCE BOTH CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 
   HOWEVER...DIABATIC HEATING OF SFC AIR WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 60S/LOW
   70S F WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG BENEATH 7-8 DEG C/KM
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  ANY TSTMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP MAY BECOME
   ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.  
    
   --- TN TO LOWER OH VALLEY ---
   N OF LARGE CLOUD/PRECIP RESIDUE FROM MORNING ACTIVITY...EXPECT
   SUFFICIENT HEATING FROM MIDMORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT TSTM
   FORMATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP IN NARROW
   ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT...JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW LEVEL
   LIFT MAXIMIZED INVOF FRONTAL OCCLUSION.  RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING
   EVIDENT IN FORECAST ETA-KF SOUNDINGS MAY PERMIT SEVERAL
   SEGMENTS/ARCS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY BAND OF LIFT --
   AHEAD OF CYCLONE TRACK.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A FEW SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z