STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE PLN 50 E ESC 10 SSE IMT 35 SSW IWD 30 SSE DLH 15 WNW DLH
25 S ELO 85 NW CMX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HQM 20 W RDM
10 SSW PDT 50 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 60 NW GGW 45 NNW DIK Y22 25 S REJ
30 N GCC 20 S WRL 25 NNE RKS 10 SE CNY 65 WNW GUP 30 WSW SOW
30 NW TUS 85 SSE GBN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GDP 35 E GDP
35 NE HOB 45 ESE LBB 40 NE SJT 20 SSE DRT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW OSC
35 SSE MBL 20 SE OSH 55 NNW EAU 35 E BRD 25 E BJI 15 ESE INL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SAV 70 WNW SAV
10 W AGS 35 SE SPA 25 NNE FLO 15 ENE ILM.
...NRN WI/MN ARROWHEAD/UPPER MI AREA...
EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD WITH
AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD TO A
SECONDARY LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO NEAR THUNDER BAY. SWLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NWD INTO
THE REGION BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS.
REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR DATA SHOW ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE FAR ERN
PART OF UPPER MI IN A ZONE OF WAA/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER. LATEST RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WWD ALONG
AND N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING 50-60 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MOIST/THERMAL
ADVECTION ABOVE STABLE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
THUS...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.
...SWRN TX...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING W OF DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM W
OF P07 TO E OF MAF AND LBB. PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
TSTMS CAN INITIATE FARTHER E IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RUC
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP MAY BE ERODED
SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO
E OF THE DRYLINE OVER SWRN TX. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA.
..MEAD.. 04/14/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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