STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 E MQT 20 N IMT 35 NW RHI 60 NNE MSP 15 SE STC 20 W STC
35 NW STC BRD 10 S HIB 55 ESE ELO 65 NNW CMX 60 N CMX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07
55 WSW P07 15 WSW FST 40 NNW BGS 40 WNW CDS 20 ENE LBL 20 NE DDC
55 NNW P28 15 S P28 40 ENE ABI 40 NE JCT 15 SSE DRT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ANJ 25 NNW APN
15 S PLN 20 SSE IMT 15 E RHI 50 ENE MSP 40 ENE RWF 45 N RWF AXN
35 W HIB 30 NE ELO.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OTH 20 S DLS
30 NE GEG 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 25 NW GDV 25 ESE 4BQ
25 NE RWL 15 ENE CNY 20 WSW SOW 40 NNW TUS 85 WSW TUS.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL US WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS UPPER-
TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS WI AS A COLD
FRONT ORGANIZES AND MOVES SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY.
...FAR NRN WI/ECNTRL MN...
COLD FRONT ORGANIZING ACROSS ND WILL MOVE SEWD AND STALL OVER NRN
MN/NRN SD BY MIDDAY. MID 50 F DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN NE
WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO CNTRL MN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-
1200 J/KG. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS CAN INCREASE LIFT ACROSS MN. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI AND COLD FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL AND NERN MN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF ABOUT 30 DEGREES WILL ALSO RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
...SRN CA COAST...
UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH SRN CA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN CA COAST
WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPE AROUND 200 J/KG. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND -25 C...ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN CA COAST. IF
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS HIGHER THAN THE MODEL FORECAST...ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST.
...WRN OK/WRN TX...
DRYLINE WILL EXIST ACROSS W TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS CAPPING INVERSION
WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING SOME
DURING THE DAY...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 04/14/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
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